on Risk and Time Pressure: When to Think and When to Do

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carnehl, Christoph; Schneider, Johannes
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvac027
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1-47
• 关键词: Experimentation; search; COMPETITION

摘要

We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative implies progress that has to be converted to a solution. As time runs out, the chances of converting it in time shrink. We show that the agent may return to the initial idea after having left it in the past to explore alternatives. Our model helps explain so-called false starts. To finish fast, the agent delays exploring alternatives, reducing the overall success probability.