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作者：Astier, Nicolas; Rajagopal, Ram; Wolak, Frank A.
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Paris School of Economics; Stanford University
摘要：This paper estimates the relationship between investments in five distributed generation technologies and hourly net withdrawals from over 2,000 electricity distribution networks in France between 2005 and 2018. We find that investments in distributed wind and solar generation have little or no impact on the annual peak of hourly net withdrawals from the distribution grid, while investments in hydroelectric and thermal distributed generation significantly reduce it. An optimistic analysis of t...
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作者：Canen, Nathan; Jackson, Matthew O.; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We develop a model of social interactions, as well as strategic interactions that depend on such social activity, and use it to measure social complementarities in the legislative process. Our model allows for partisan bias and homophily in the formation of relationships, which then impact legislative output. We use it to show how increased electoral competition can induce increased social behavior and the nonlinear effects of political polarization on legislative activity. We identify and str...
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作者：Coffman, Katherine; Collis, Manuela R.; Kulkarni, Leena
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Toronto
摘要：We explore how feedback shapes, and perpetuates, gender gaps in self-assessments. Participants in our experiment take tests of their ability across different domains. We elicit their beliefs of their performance before and after feedback. We find that, even after the provision of highly informative feedback, gender stereotypes influence posterior beliefs, beyond what a Bayesian model would predict. This is primarily because both men and women update their beliefs more positively in response to...
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作者：Meh, Cesaire A.; Quadrini, Vincenzo; Terajima, Yaz
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Southern California
摘要：When financial contracts are not fully enforceable and firms observe their own nominal sales before the observation of the aggregate nominal price, the optimal financial contract is not fully indexed to inflation. Because of the limited nominal indexation, which is endogenous in the model, unanticipated inflation affects aggregate investment and future economic activity. The macroeconomic volatility induced by price uncertainty, however, is not monotone: It first increases and then decreases w...
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作者：Kaufmann, Christoph
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets worldwide gained importance during the post-crisis second phase of global liquidity. The analysis presented in this ...
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作者：Hurtado, Samuel; Nuno, Galo; Thomas, Carlos
作者单位：Banco de Espana
摘要：We analyze the consequences of monetary policy for sovereign debt sustainability and welfare in a model of a small open economy where the government issues long-term nominal debt without a commitment not to default on it or erode its real value through (costly) inflation. Inflation is a form of partial default, one that is more state-contingent than outright default. This reduces the government's incentives to default outright and hence enlarges the repayment region, compared to a regime in wh...
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作者：Costa, Francisco; Marcantonio, Angelo; Rocha, Rudi
作者单位：University of Delaware; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. Regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carry out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. We, therefore, find that recessions ...
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作者：Andersson, David; Karadja, Mounir; Prawitz, Erik
作者单位：Uppsala University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：This paper studies the effect of emigration on technological change in sending locations after one of the largest migration events in human history, the mass migration from Europe to the United States in the 19th century. To establish causality, we adopt an instrumental variable strategy that combines local growing-season frost shocks with proximity to emigration ports. Using data on patents, we find that emigration led to an increase in innovative activity in sending localities. Using data on...
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作者：Mueller, Hannes; Rauh, Christopher
作者单位：Barcelona School of Economics; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); University of Cambridge
摘要：In this article, we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using a topic model. The topics are then fed into a random forest to predict conflict risk, whi...
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作者：Beg, Sabrin
作者单位：University of Delaware
摘要：I test the land and labor market effects of a property rights reform that computerized rural land records in Pakistan, making digitized records and automated transactions accessible to agricultural landowners and cultivators. Using the staggered roll-out of the program, I find that while the reform does not shift land ownership, landowning households are more likely to rent out land and shift into non-agricultural occupations. At the same time, cultivating households have access to more land, ...
