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作者：Ma, Chang; Rogers, John; Zhou, Sili
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Macau; University of Macau
摘要：We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate that real GDP growth falls by around 2 percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is ...
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作者：Martinez, Seung-Keun; Meier, Stephan; Sprenger, Charles
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Columbia University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：Understanding the structure of time preferences allows for accurate predictions of the effects of changing intertemporal incentives. Behavioral models of present bias are used to rationalize field data seemingly at odds with exponential discounting, leveraging additional degrees of freedom to improve in-sample fit. Largely lacking to date are the critical out-of-sample tests necessary to ensure predictive accuracy. This paper contrasts exponential discounting with present-biased procrastinatio...
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作者：Askarov, Zohid; Doucouliagos, Anthony; Doucouliagos, Hristos; Stanley, T. D.
作者单位：Westminster International University Tashkent; Deakin University; Deakin University
摘要：We assess the impact of mandating data-sharing in economics journals on two dimensions of research credibility: statistical significance and excess statistical significance (ESS). ESS is a necessary condition for publication selection bias. Quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis of 20,121 estimates published in 24 general interest and leading field journals shows that data-sharing policies have reduced reported statistical significance and the associated t-values. The magnitude ...
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作者：Blasutto, Fabio
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：In this paper, I analyze the determinants of cohabitation, marriage, and divorce in the USA. I first document that college graduates are more likely to marry, and less likely to cohabit and divorce, than non-college educated individuals. To account for these facts within a unified framework, I build and estimate a life-cycle model of partnership formation and dissolution where income processes differ by gender and education. I find that the main driver of education-based differences in mating ...
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作者：Echenique, Federico; Imai, Taisuke; Saito, Kota
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Munich; California Institute of Technology
摘要：We propose a new measure of deviations from expected utility theory. For any positive number e, we give a characterization of the datasets with a rationalization that is within e (in beliefs, utility, or perceived prices) of expected utility (EU) theory, under the assumption of risk aversion. The number e can then be used as a measure of how far the data is to EU theory. We apply our methodology to data from three large-scale experiments. Many subjects in these experiments are consistent with ...
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作者：Diaz-Saavedra, Julian; Marimon, Ramon; de Sousa, Joao Brogueira
作者单位：University of Granada; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Facing an ageing population and historical trends of low employment rates, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems, currently in place in several European countries, imply very large economic and welfare costs in the coming decades. In an overlapping generations economy with incomplete insurance markets and frictional labour markets, an employment fund, which can be used while unemployed or retired, can enhance production efficiency and social welfare. With an appropriate design, the sustainable ...
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作者：Cloyne, James; Ferreira, Clodomiro; Froemel, Maren; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Banco de Espana; Bank of England; University of London; London Business School
摘要：In response to a change in interest rates, younger firms not paying dividends adjust both their capital expenditure and borrowing significantly more than older firms paying dividends. The reason is that the debt of younger non-dividend payers is far more sensitive to fluctuations in collateral values, which are significantly affected by monetary policy. The results are robust to a wide range of possible confounding factors. Other channels, including movements in interest payments, product dema...
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作者：Eilat, Ran; Eliaz, Kfir
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; Tel Aviv University; Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah
摘要：We consider the problem faced by a group of players who bargain over what public signal to acquire before deciding on a collective action. The players differ in their privately known state-dependent payoffs from taking the action, and therefore differ also in their willingness to pay for the public signal. We take a mechanism design approach to characterizing the efficient frontier of outcomes achievable via bargaining over information. We identify novel distortions in the optimal information ...
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作者：Boccanfuso, Jeremy; Ferey, Antoine
作者单位：University of Bologna; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：This paper shows that inattention to taxes generates a time-inconsistency problem in the choice of tax policy, leading to higher taxes in equilibrium. These discretionary tax increases are inefficient as they are deviations from the socially optimal commitment policy. We call these deviations a taxation bias. Combining sufficient statistics and structural approaches, we quantify the magnitude of this policy distortion for the U.S. redistributive tax-transfer system. We find that the taxation b...
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作者：Atella, Vincenzo; Di Porto, Edoardo; Kopinska, Joanna; Lindeboom, Maarten
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata; University of Naples Federico II; Sapienza University Rome; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Monash University
摘要：This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affects offspring earnings throughout the working career...
