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作者：Ashwin, Julian; Beaudry, Paul; Ellison, Martin
作者单位：Maastricht University; University of British Columbia; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then th...
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作者：Infante, Sebastian; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that the effect of aggregate volatility on idiosyncratic risk sharing depends on the nature of collateral sustaining insurance. While volatility increases the value of public assets- more useful for consumption smoothing-it decreases the value of private assets-more exposed to aggregate variation. Hence, a more volatile economy weakens risk sharing when collateral composition is biased towards private assets. When applied to financial intermediaries that rely heavily on private collate...
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作者：Luo, Yulei; Nie, Jun; Wang, Xiaowen; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Wuhan University; Liaoning University; University of Virginia
摘要：In this paper we propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain ten facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously including the high volatility of production relative to sales, the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, the positive correlation between sales and inventory investment, and the negative correlat...
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作者：Tanaka, Hiroatsu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average...
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作者：Gust, Christopher; Herbst, Edward; Lopez-Salido, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We model private-sector expectations in a finite-horizon-planning framework: households and firms have limited foresight when making spending, saving, and pricing decisions. In this setting, contrary to standard New Keynesian (NK) models, we show that an inflation scare problem can arise in which agents' longer-run inflation expectations deviate persistently from a central bank's inflation target. We characterize optimal time-consistent monetary policy when there is uncertainty about the plann...
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作者：Jo, Yoon Joo; Klopack, Ben
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shap...
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作者：Adachi, Daisuke
作者单位：Aarhus University
摘要：This paper examines the wage effects of the increased use of industrial robots, focusing on their role in specific tasks and international trade. I construct a novel dataset by tracking shocks to the cost of acquiring robots from Japan, termed the Japan Robot Shock (JRS), and analyze these shocks across different occupations that have adopted robots. A general equilibrium model incorporating robot automation in a large open economy is developed, and a model-implied optimal instrumental variabl...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Universite de Rennes; University of British Columbia; University of Lausanne
摘要：Countries have an incentive to use tariffs to gain advantage over trade partners, but an optimal tariff must weigh the benefits of an improved terms of trade against the costs that the tariff imposes on the domestic economy. In the presence of monopoly distortions and nominal rigidities, the stance of monetary policy may have a large effect on the evaluation of these costs. In a global economy where all countries set tariffs unilaterally in a 'trade war', the final outcome can differ dramatica...
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作者：Pashchenko, Svetlana
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
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作者：Cho, Daeha; Kim, Jung Hyun; Kim, Kwang Hwan; Kim, Suk Joon
作者单位：Hanyang University; Yonsei University; New York University
摘要：We study the optimal inflation target in an open economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates calibrated to the Euro area. When uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) holds, the optimal inflation target is smaller than in a closed economy. The key to this result is that real interest rates at the ZLB increase less as trade openness increases. This less pronounced increase in real interest rates in an open economy mitigates the contraction in aggregate demand, thus reducing the...
