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作者：Cloyne, James; Kurt, Ezgi; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bentley University; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Goods producers increase their capital expenditure and employment in response to a cut in marginal corporate income tax rates or an increase in investment tax credits. In contrast, companies in the service sector mostly use any tax windfall to increase dividend payouts. We base our conclusions on a novel measure of U.S. firm-specific tax shocks that combines changes in statutory tax rates faced by each firm with narrative identified legislated U.S. federal tax changes between 1950 and 2006.
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作者：Nguyen, Lam
摘要：Instrument validity cannot be tested in a just-identified model, and it is not clear what conclusion to draw when instrument validity is rejected in an over-identified model. In practice, researchers tend to regard instruments as valid when they lead to sensible inferences. This paper develops a proxy structural vector autoregression with imperfect confidence in instrument validity, enabling researchers to incorporate and investigate those prior beliefs alongside other identifying information ...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Onder, Yasin Kursat; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); International Monetary Fund; Ghent University; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government's borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after...
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作者：Ahn, Hie Joo; Rudd, Jeremy B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of e...
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作者：Carrier, Alexandre; Mavromatis, Kostas
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents' expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing rol...
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作者：Rostagno, Massimo; Altavilla, Carlo; Carboni, Giacomo; Lemke, Wolfgang; Motto, Roberto; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：The effect of Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and rate Forward Guidance (FG) on the yield curve is very similar with both policies exerting their maximal impact on a same spectrum of short-to-medium term maturities. Yet, we find that their impact on the predictive interest rate distribution differs. Accommodative FG prices out high interest rate trajectories, thus affecting upper percentiles; NIRP changes the market pricing of the effective lower bound on the policy rate, thus affecting l...
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作者：Ozkan, Serdar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Toronto
摘要：I show that while the rich spend more on healthcare early in life, the poor outspend them by 25% from middle to old age in the US. Furthermore, the poor seek medical care less frequently but face higher risks of extreme expenses when they do. I develop a life-cycle model, incorporating physical and preventive health capital, along with features of the US healthcare system. Preventive health capital governs the distribution of health shocks, thereby controlling life expectancy. The model sugges...
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作者：Bento, Pedro
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：The number of women-owned businesses in the U.S. has soared over the last several decades. In 1982 less than 13 percent of businesses were majority-owned by women. By 2012 this number reached 40 percent. This and other evidence suggests that women have faced significant barriers to running businesses. Interpreted through the lens of a model of entrepreneurship, observed trends imply substantial declines in several barriers facing female entrepreneurs. Together, these changes account for almost...
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作者：Braun, Robin; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Saha, Tuli
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bank of England
摘要：We introduce the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (UKMPD), a new and rich dataset of high-frequency monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom. Intraday surprises are computed around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's announcements, as well as around the press conference that follows the publication of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The dataset also includes factors that disentangle the different dimensions of UK monetary policy. We use the data to estimate t...
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作者：Aruoba, S. Boragan; Drechsel, Thomas
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to usefu...
