Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021-2023 shock

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pallotti, Filippo; Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo; Slacalek, Jiri; Tristani, Oreste; Violante, Giovanni L.
• 署名单位: University of London; University College London; European Central Bank; Princeton University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103671
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: inflation; redistribution; Household heterogeneity; Net nominal positions; income; Fiscal support; welfare

摘要

We measure the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the euro area. A simple framework illustrating the numerous transmission channels of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our empirical exercise. By combining micro data and aggregate time series, we conclude that: (i) country-level average welfare costs - expressed as a share of triennial income - were sizable and heterogeneous: around 3% in France and Spain, 7% in Germany, and 9% in Italy; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the retirees losing up to 14%, and roughly half of the 25-44 yearold winning; (iii) losses were quite uniform across consumption quantiles because rigid rents served as a hedge for the poor; (iv) nominal net positions were the key driver of heterogeneity across-households; (v) the rise in energy prices generated vast variation in individual-level inflation rates, but unconventional fiscal policies helped shield households. The counterpart of this household-sector loss is a significant gain for the government.