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作者：Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Treasury yields spiked during the initial phase of COVID. The 10-year yield increased by 64 bps from March 9 to 18, 2020, leading the Federal Reserve to purchase $1T of Trea-suries in 2020Q1. Fed Treasury purchases were causal for reducing Treasury yields based on (1) the timing of purchases (which increased on March 19), (2) evidence against con-founding factors, and (3) the timing of yield reversal and Fed purchases in the MBS market. Treasury-QE worked more via purchases than announcements....
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作者：Crouzet, Nicolas; Eberly, Janice
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In recent years, measured TFP growth in the US has declined. We argue that two forces contributed to this decline: the mismeasurement of intangible capital, and rising markups. Markups affect input shares, while intangibles omitted from measures of investment affect measured capital growth, each potentially generating downward bias in measured TFP growth. Most importantly, when both forces are simultaneously present, their effects reinforce each other and amplify the downward bias in measured ...
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作者：Maliar, Lilia; Maliar, Serguei; Winant, Pablo
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Stanford University; Santa Clara University; heSam Universite; ESCP Business School; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
摘要：We introduce a unified deep learning method that solves dynamic economic models by casting them into nonlinear regression equations. We derive such equations for three fun-damental objects of economic dynamics - lifetime reward functions, Bellman equations and Euler equations. We estimate the decision functions on simulated data using a stochas-tic gradient descent method. We introduce an all-in-one integration operator that facil-itates approximation of high-dimensional integrals. We use neur...
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作者：Morlacco, Monica; Zeke, David
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：In U.S. firm-level data, large firms increase their spending on customer capital significantly more than small firms following an interest rate decline. We interpret this evidence in a model with product market frictions where heterogeneous firms strategically advertise to build a customer base. When a firm advertises, it shifts customers' demand away from competitors. This externality is especially severe when firms have a sizable existing customer base, discouraging smaller competitors and m...
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作者：Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：New York University
摘要：Cavenaile et al. (2021) study the long-run implications of anti-trust policy for innovation, output and welfare using a general equilibrium model. Their approach differs from the much of the existing literature that focuses on short-run, partial equilibrium effects. Their model combines three key elements: (i) endogenous growth with vertical innovations; (ii) oligopolistic competition in the product market; (iii) endogenous M&As. I will briefly discuss their paper and then compare it to Mermel...
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作者：Jaimovich, Nir; Saporta-Eksten, Itay; Siu, Henry; Yedid-Levi, Yaniv
作者单位：University of Zurich; Tel Aviv University; University of British Columbia; Reichman University
摘要：The decline in middle-wage occupations and rise in automation over the last decades are at the center of policy discussions. We develop an empirically relevant general equilibrium model that features endogenous labor force participation, occupational choice, and automation capital. We use the model to consider two types of policies: the retraining of workers who were adversely affected by automation, and redistribution policies that transfer resources to these workers. Our framework emphasizes...
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作者：Candian, Giacomo
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：Do the benefits of central bank transparency depend on the structure of financial markets? We address this question in a two-country model with dispersed information among price-setting firms. The volatility of the real exchange rate is non-monotonic in the precision of public communications. Despite this non-monotonicity, under complete markets, greater provision of public information always improves welfare and full transparency is optimal. By contrast, under incomplete markets, more accurat...
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作者：Altinoglu, Levent
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I build a network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. A financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks, amplifying their aggregate effects. To calibrate the model, I construct a proxy of inter-industry credit flows from firm-and industry-level data. I estimate aggregate a...
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作者：Andrade, Philippe; Ferroni, Filippo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：What drives the reaction of financial markets to central bank communication on the days of policy decisions? We highlight the role of two factors that we identify from high-frequency monetary surprises: news on future macroeconomic conditions (Delphic shocks) and news on future monetary policy shocks (Odyssean shocks). These two shocks move the yield curve in the same direction but have opposite effects on financial conditions and macroeconomic expectations. They also have a different impact o...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; Fujiwara, Ippei; Huang, Kevin X. D.; Wang, Jiao
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Keio University; Australian National University; Vanderbilt University; University of Melbourne
摘要：Recent theoretical papers argue that countries can insulate themselves from volatile world capital flows by using a variable tax on foreign capital as an instrument of monetary policy. But empirical papers argue that we rarely observe these cyclical capital flow taxes used in practice. We construct a small open economy model where the central bank engages in sterilized foreign exchange intervention. When private agents freely trade foreign bonds, sterilized intervention has no effect. But we p...
