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作者：Wen, Y
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：Why do countries and industries with large seasonal fluctuations also have large business cycles? It is well known that seasonal fluctuations account for the bulk of total output fluctuations, yet it is unknown whether seasonal fluctuations can trigger business cycles. Using a procedure that allows for identification of seasonal innovations, I found that seasonal shocks explain 50% of the business cycle in aggregate output. Such findings provide a novel and powerful explanation for the observe...
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作者：Boileau, M; Normandin, M
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：We test whether dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium artificial economies associated with several labor market structures provide an adequate characterization of aggregate employment volatility and dynamics. Our test is robust to possible misspecifications about the information set used by economic agents to forecast future events. Accounting for agents' superior information, we find that the divisible labor, indivisible labor, labor adjustment costs, and labor hoarding structures replicat...
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作者：Sbordone, AM
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the dynamics of inflation. Taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation and labor productivity to approximate the evolution of marginal costs, I determine the path of prices predicted by the solution of the firms' optimal pricing problem. Model parameters are chosen to maximize the fit with the data. I find evidence of a significant degree of price stickiness and substantial support fo...
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作者：Lettau, M; Ludvigson, S
作者单位：New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; New York University
摘要：Evidence suggests that expected excess stock market returns vary over time, and that this variation is much larger than that of expected real interest rates. It follows that a large fraction of the movement in the cost of capital in standard investment models must be attributable to movements in equity risk-premia. In this paper we emphasize that such movements in equity risk premia should have implications not merely for investment today, but also for future investment over long horizons. In ...
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作者：Demirgüç-Kunt, A; Detragiache, E
作者单位：The World Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Based on evidence for 61 countries in 1980-1997, this study finds that explicit deposit insurance tends to increase the likelihood of banking crises, the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. Also, the adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger the more extensive is the coverage offered to depositors, where the scheme is funded, and where it is run by the government rather than the private sector. (C) 2002 E...
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作者：Canova, F; De Nicoló, G
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Southampton; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines the importance of monetary disturbances for cyclical fluctuations in real activity and inflation. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross-correlation function in response to shocks to assign a structural interpretation to orthogonal innovations. We find that identified monetary shocks have reasonable properties; that they significantly contribute to output and inflation cycles in all G-7 countries; that they contain an important policy co...
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作者：Uribe, M
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A defining stylized fact associated with exchange-rate-based stabilization programs is that their initial phase is characterized by several years of continuous expansion in private consumption and a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate. This paper shows that a large class of standard optimizing models is unable to account for this empirical regularity. In particular, models in this class predict that a gradual appreciation of the real exchange rate must necessarily be accompanied by ...
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作者：Almeida, H; Bonomo, M
作者单位：New York University; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：We use a state-dependent model where pricing rules are optimal to examine the costs of a money-based disinflation under various assumptions about the credibility of the policy change. Our analysis allows us to relate actual credibility and future inflation inertia to the asymmetry of the price deviation distribution. An important implication of our state-dependent setting is that disinflation can be attained without substantial cost even in a situation of low credibility, provided that a mecha...
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作者：Wang, C; Williamson, SD
作者单位：University of Iowa; Carnegie Mellon University; Iowa State University
摘要：This paper is concerned with evaluating alternative unemployment insurance (UI) schemes in a dynamic economy with moral hazard. We consider changes in the size and duration of UI benefits, and the effects of experience rating, and use a dynamic contracting approach to determine a benchmark optimal allocation. Radical changes in the current UI system increase welfare, but not by much. A move to full experience rating has distributional effects, but the aggregate effects are negligible. (C) 2002...
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作者：Bullard, J; Mitra, K
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of London; Royal Holloway University London
摘要：We study macroeconomic systems with forward-looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule. We use stability under recursive learning a la Evans and Honkapohja (Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 2001) as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context. We find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternati...
