The business cycle effects of Christmas

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wen, Y
• 署名单位: Cornell University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00150-2
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 1289-1314
• 关键词: Business cycle; seasonal cycle; seasonal adjustment; shock identification; spectral decomposition

摘要

Why do countries and industries with large seasonal fluctuations also have large business cycles? It is well known that seasonal fluctuations account for the bulk of total output fluctuations, yet it is unknown whether seasonal fluctuations can trigger business cycles. Using a procedure that allows for identification of seasonal innovations, I found that seasonal shocks explain 50% of the business cycle in aggregate output. Such findings provide a novel and powerful explanation for the observed strong correlation between seasonal fluctuations and business cycles. The implication is that in addition to trying to determine whether it is monetary, technology, or other types of shocks that cause business cycles, we should be looking at what causes seasonality. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.