Partisan expectations and COVID era inflation: A comment

• 成果类型: Editorial Material
• 署名作者: Aidala, Felix; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio; van Der Klaauw, Wilbert
• 署名单位: Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103659
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: inflation; expectations; Anchoring; Consumer surveys; ELECTIONS

摘要

In this note we provide comments on the paper ''Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation'' (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR's analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR's results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans' inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We also offer some commentary on BKR's MSA-level empirical Phillips curve analysis and conclude with some observations on how BKR's paper contributes to the literature on consumers' inflation expectations.