-
作者：Buono, Ines; Formai, Sara
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：This paper analyzes how bank credit affects foreign and domestic sales. We use Italian matched bank-firm data and exploit bank mergers and acquisitions as a novel instrument to establish a causal link. We find that shocks to the supply of bank credit induce exporters to decrease their export flows, without affecting their domestic sales. On the other hand, non-exporters react by reducing their domestic sales. We argue that these differences are not driven by the kind of flow, but by the kind o...
-
作者：Hummels, David; Lee, Kwan Yong
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of North Dakota Grand Forks
摘要：We construct a synthetic panel of household expenditures from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and use the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate expenditure shares and income elasticities of demand that vary by good-time-income. We show that the size and distribution of income shocks drives expenditure change in a manner that varies profoundly across traded goods. Our estimates of expenditure shares and income elasticities could be useful in many applications that seek to expla...
-
作者：Cosar, A. Kerem; Demir, Banu
作者单位：University of Virginia; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University
摘要：We quantify the effect of container technology on transport costs and trade by estimating the modal choice between containerization and breakbulk shipping using micro-level trade data. The model is motivated by novel facts that relate container usage to shipment, destination and firm characteristics. We find container transport to have a higher first-mile cost and a lower distance elasticity, making it cost effective in longer distances. At the median distance across all country pairs, the con...
-
作者：Drechsel, Thomas; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of which produces commodities with prices subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These fluctuations affect both the competitiveness of the economy and its borrowing terms, as higher commodity prices...
-
作者：Luo, Jie; Wang, Cheng
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Fudan University
摘要：A model of dynamic contracting with private information is constructed to study sovereign lending and default. The model endogenizes debt exclusion and provides a theory of reentry and a theory of debt dynamics within the exclusion period. It explains why countries may end up more indebted after the exclusion period. It offers an interpretation for the mixed evidence on the correlation between default probability and indebtedness. It also explains the observed positive correlation between the ...
-
作者：Michaud, Amanda; Rothert, Jacek
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; United States Naval Academy
摘要：Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is most pronounced in social transfers which are also a large component of total government expenditures (28-39%). The discrepancy in the cyclicality of spending on goods and services is smaller, by contrast, and the category accounts for just 11-16% of total government expenditures. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account ...
-
作者：Cosar, A. Kerem; Grieco, Paul L. E.; Li, Shengyu; Tintelnot, Felix
作者单位：University of Virginia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Durham University; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the automobile industry, as in many tradable goods markets, firms usually earn their highest market share within their domestic market. The goal of this paper is to disentangle the supply- and demand-driven sources of this home market advantage. While trade costs, foreign production costs, and taste heterogeneity all matter for market outcomes, we find that a preference for home brands is the single most important driver of home market advantage even after controlling for brand histories an...
-
作者：Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Henn, Christian
作者单位：World Trade Organization; Leibniz University Hannover; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, and magnitudes of effects are sizable. The WTO Information Technology Agreement's (ITA) unique setting allows us to overcome the challenges associated with identifying effects of non-discriminatory trade policies due to two reasons: (i) ITA constitutes a quasi-natural experiment of several passive signatories joining the agreement as an unavoidable part of pursuing a larger policy objective, and (...
-
作者：Allen, Franklin; Bartiloro, Laura; Gu, Xian; Kowalewski, Oskar
作者单位：Imperial College London; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Central University of Finance & Economics; IESEG School of Management; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Paris Cite
摘要：In this paper, we examine the relationship between the structure of the real economy and a country's financial system. We consider whether the development of the real economic structure can predict the direction of evolution of a country's financial structure. Using data for 108 countries, we find a significant relationship between real economic structure and financial structure. Next, we exploit shocks to the economies in India, Finland and Sweden, and South Korea and show that changes in the...
-
作者：Garred, Jason
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests th...
