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作者：Bems, Rudolfs; Caselli, Francesca; Grigoli, Francesco; Gruss, Bertrand
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct an index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies since 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks and find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation ...
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作者：Hartwig, Benny; Meinerding, Christoph; Schueler, Yves S.
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We operationalize the definition of systemic risk provided by the IMF, BIS, and FSB and derive a two-stage hierarchical hypothesis test to identify indicators of systemic risk. Applying the framework to a set of candidate variables for 45 countries, we detect two credit-based financial cycle variables that, by and large, pass our test. However, for many other variables, including the Basel III credit-to-GDP gap, we find that elevated systemic risk is signaled by high values in some countries a...
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作者：Correa-Lopez, Monica; de Blas, Beatriz
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Autonomous University of Madrid
摘要：Large US firms, by diffusing embodied technology through trade in intermediates, appear to drive Europe's output over the medium term. We develop a two-country model of endogenous growth in varieties, cross-country firm heterogeneity and trade to match this evidence. A US TFP slowdown generates a pronounced recession in Europe, while a negative investment-spe-cific shock also imparts a protracted recession in the US since GDP and firm productivity stay below trend beyond a decade. Heterogeneou...
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作者：Sunder-Plassmann, Laura
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
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作者：Bailey, Michael; Gupta, Abhinav; Hillenbrand, Sebastian; Kuchler, Theresa; Richmond, Robert; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：Facebook Inc; New York University
摘要：We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for goods where information frictions may be large. The social connections that predict trade in specific products are those between the regions where the product is produced in the exporting country and the regions where it is used in...
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作者：Keller, Wolfgang; Olney, William W.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Williams College
摘要：This paper finds that globalization is contributing to the rapid increase in executive compensation. Employing comprehensive data on top executives at major U.S. companies, we show that their compensation is increasing with exports and foreign direct investment, as well as firm size and technology. Exogenous export shocks unrelated to managerial decisions also increase executive compensation, and there is little evidence that this is due to increasing market returns to talent. We do find that ...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Monash University
摘要：We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate between 1980 and 2015 -a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and unilateral) and business cycle asymmetries. We find three main results. First, the relatively large US trade deficits as a share of GDP in the 2000s compared to the 1980s mostly reflect a rise in the t...
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作者：Galli, Carlo
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：This paper studies the circular relationship between sovereign credit risk, government fiscal and debt policy, and output. I consider a sovereign default model with fiscal policy and private capital accumulation. I show that, when fiscal policy responds to borrowing conditions in the sovereign debt market, multiple equilibria exist where the expectations of lenders are self-fulfilling. In the bad equilibrium, pessimistic beliefs make sovereign debt costly. The government substitutes borrowing ...
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作者：Van Leemput, Eva
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper quantifies the size of internal versus external trade barriers and assesses the trade and welfare impact. I develop a quantitative two-sector international trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences in which Indian states trade both domestically and internationally. I discipline the model using rich data on price dispersion together with state-based foreign and domestic trade flows. I find that (1) internal trade barriers make up 40% of total trade barriers on average, but vary...
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作者：Ju, Jiandong; Shi, Kang; Wei, Shang-Jin
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on capital flows in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and makes four contributions. First, we identify an interest rate overdetermination problem in such a model, and solve it with an endogenous discount factor. Second, we show that a trade liberalization in a developing country generally leads to a greater current account surplus, which is the exact opposite of a common but partial equilibrium intuition. Third, factor market reforms reinfor...
