Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha
• 署名单位: Bank of Finland
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103480
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Trade shock; Great depressions; Small open economy

摘要

We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990-1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.