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作者：Beauregard, Remy; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Fischer, Eric; Zhu, Simon
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, we provide estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. Beyond documenting the existence of large and weakly correlated liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices, our results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the Bank of Mexico's inflation target. Furt...
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作者：De Gregorio, Jose; Garcia, Pablo; Luttini, Emiliano; Rojas, Marco
作者单位：Universidad de Chile; Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; The World Bank; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We revisit a central question for international macroeconomics: the response of export prices and quantities to movements in the exchange rate (ER). We use granular export data for Chile and study how the effects of ER movements vary over time with the currency of invoicing and the destination of exports. For prices, we find that the short -run effects of bilateral ER movements vanish when controlling for U.S. dollar ER, which supports dominant currency pricing. However, over longer horizons a...
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作者：Egger, Hartmut; Kreickemeier, Udo; Moser, Christoph; Wrona, Jens
作者单位：University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institute for Solid State & Materials Research Dresden; University of Gottingen; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Duisburg Essen; University of Bayreuth
摘要：Using linked employer-employee data for Germany, we provide evidence for job polarisation between firms and identify offshoring as an important determinant of these employment changes. To accommodate these findings, we set up a model in which offshoring to a low-wage country can lead to job polarisation in the high-wage country due to a reallocation of labour across firms that differ in productivity and pay wages that are positively linked to their profits. Offshoring is chosen only by the mos...
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作者：Gray, Rowena; Wright, Greg C.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced; Brookings Institution
摘要：We estimate the short- and long -run local labor market impacts of the large increase in U.S. imports and exports that occurred over the 1970s. We exploit the sequential opening of overseas shipping container ports over the period, which generated export and import shocks that were largely non -overlapping across U.S. labor markets thereby providing substantial variation to distinguish their effects. We find that the average net impact on the employment -to -population ratio was positive and c...
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作者：Gruber, Noam
摘要：Foreign tech multinationals, which have entered Israel en masse in the past two decades, are known to use high wages to draw in the best talent. While paying higher wages no doubt contributes to the domestic economy, local tech firms have argued that the competition for talent inhibits their growth, and that foreign multinationals contribute less in terms of overall economic value compared to local firms. It is thus of great importance to estimate the foreign firm wage premium - by how much do...
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作者：Kondo, Illenin O.; Li, Yao Amber; Qian, Wei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Haverford College
摘要：We document that larger input tariff reductions were associated with lower labor markdowns in China, especially for skill-intensive firms. Guided by a stylized model of equilibrium market power, we leverage differences in the aggregate labor supply dynamics across markets - such as regional variations in China's contemporaneous college expansion reforms - to that show trade-induced labor markdown decreased more in labor markets with labor supply growth. Our estimates suggest that lower labor m...
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作者：Amiti, Mary; Duprez, Cedric; Konings, Jozef; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium; University of Mons; Nazarbayev University; KU Leuven; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using firm-to-firm transactions, we show that starting to supply a 'superstar' firm (large domestic firms, exporters and multinationals) boosts productivity by 8% after three years. Placebos on starting relationships with smaller firms and novel identification strategies support a causal interpretation of superstar spillovers. Consistent with a model of technology transfer, we find bigger treatment effects from technology-intensive superstars and also falls in markups (in order to win supersta...
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作者：Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University
摘要：We develop a quantitative framework for decomposing trade patterns. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage and the aggregate cost of living. If firms and products are imperfect substitutes, we show that these price indexes depend on variety, average appeal (including quality), and the dispersion of appeal -adjusted prices. We show that they are only weakly related to standard empirical measures of average prices. We find that 40 percent of the cross-section variation in c...
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作者：Arvai, Kai
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：How can monetary and fiscal policy sustain a currency union when member states have an exit option? This paper derives an interest rate rule that features state-dependent country weights with which the central bank can prevent a break-up. A simulation reveals that this policy rule lacks firepower and can only extend the lifetime of the union for a while. While monetary policy is more potent in unions with more member states or setups with local currency pricing, it is still true that even a si...
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作者：Becko, John Sturm
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How can a country design economic sanctions to maximize their economic cost to the sanctioned country at the lowest cost to the sanctioner? I consider this problem from the perspective of international trade and draw a close connection between trade restrictions as economic sanctions and trade restrictions as terms -of -trade manipulation. This connection has useful implications for the design of trade taxes as sanctions: Small sanctions increase welfare in the sanctioning country. Sanctions t...
