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作者：Abrego, L; Riezman, R; Whalley, J
作者单位：University of Warwick; Western University (University of Western Ontario); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Iowa
摘要：This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on regional trade agreements may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of interest might hold, rather than to restrict assumptions so they unambiguously hold. Our aim is to blend theory and numerical simulation and go beyond the ambiguous analytically derived propositions that dominate the theoretical lite...
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作者：Friberg, Richard; Ganslandt, Mattias
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Can two-way trade in similar products lead to lower welfare than if such trade was banned? Theory answers yes. To empirically investigate this proposition we examine Swedish imports of bottled water. Assuming one-shot (Bertrand and Cournot) competition, we can use the estimates from a structural model of demand to uncover marginal costs. We simulate the effect on consumer and producer surplus of banning imports. We do not find convincing evidence that banning imports would increase overall wel...
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作者：Wright, MLJ
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：What has been the effect of the shift in emerging market capital flows toward private sector borrowers? Are emerging market capital flows more efficient? If not, can controls on capital flows improve welfare? This paper shows that the answers depend on the form of default risk. When private loans are enforceable, but there is the risk that the government will default on behalf of all residents, private lending is inefficient and capital controls are potentially Pareto-improving. However, when ...
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作者：Guimaraes, B
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper presents a dynamic model of currency crises with frictions. By construction, a speculative attack is not an instantaneous event but takes a little time to deplete the country's reserves and, in the event of an attack, agents are uncertain about whether they will be able to act before the devaluation comes. The currency will be overvalued ('ripe for attack') for a long time before an attack takes place. A discrete and sizable devaluation will occur. Small changes in fundamentals may ...
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作者：Broda, Christian
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper explores the role of exchange rate regimes in explaining deviations from the classic theory of purchasing power parity. Examining a broad panel of countries, I find that developing countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have national price levels that are 20 percent higher than those with flexible regimes. For industrial countries, the relation between regimes and price levels is qualitatively similar but weaker. I investigate several explanations for this pattern, and find that...
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作者：Kose, M. Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Terrones, Marco E.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The influential work of Ramey and Ramey [Ramey, G., Ramey, V.A., 1995. Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth. American Economic Review 85, 1138-1151 (December).] highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financi...
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作者：Valletti, Tommaso M.
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：I consider the case for imposing uniform pricing on a monopolist in a setting where markets can be segmented according to differences in marginal costs and/or consumer demand. I also analyze the ex ante impact on incentives to invest in R&D. I show how two opposite trade-offs arise. When differential pricing is demand-based, uniform pricing has good ex-post welfare properties but leads to lower investment ex ante. Conversely, when differential pricing is cost-based, uniform pricing has bad ex-...
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作者：Dennis, BN; Iscan, TB
作者单位：Dalhousie University; University of the Pacific
摘要：We examine the welfare consequences of terms-of-trade risk in a small open economy in which it is costly for workers to move between sectors. Relocation costs lead to partial labor mobility, sectoral wage gaps and income risk exceeding that of an economy in which relocation is costless. Using observed wage differentials and standard values for volatility and preferences, we find that the welfare cost of partial labor mobility alone is unlikely to be very large, even in the absence of self-insu...
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作者：Edmonds, EV; Pavcnik, N
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We explore the relationship between exposure to trade (as measured by openness) and child labor in a cross-country setting. Our methodology accounts for the fact that trade flows are endogenous to child labor (and labor standards more generally) by examining the relationship between child labor and variation in trade based on geography. We find that countries that trade more have less child labor. At the cross-country means, the data suggest an openness elasticity of child labor of -0.7. For l...
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作者：Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a...
