Fixed exchange rates and trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.01.001
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 359-383
• 关键词: exchange rate regimes; gravity model; TRADE; Fixed exchange rate

摘要

A classic argument for a fixed exchange rate is its promotion of trade. Empirical support for this, however, is mixed. While one branch of research consistently shows a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, another, more recent, branch presents evidence of a large positive impact of currency unions on trade. This paper helps resolve this disconnect. Our results, which use a new data-based classification of fixed exchange rate regimes, show a large, significant effect of a fixed exchange rate on bilateral trade between a base country and a country that pegs to it. These results suggest an economically relevant role for exchange rate regimes in trade determination since a significant amount of world trade is conducted between countries with fixed exchange rates. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.