Journal of International Economics

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• Basic analytics of multilateral lending and surveillance AI翻译
  作者：Hagen, Rune Jansen
  作者单位：University of Bergen
  摘要：I analyse the role of multilateral financial institutions in a world of global capital markets assuming that they have an informational advantage over private lenders in the market for sovereign debt. I show that the adverse selection problem in this market may be solved through certification if the multilateral agency does not care too much about borrower country welfare. However, with lending the private information of the agency will be revealed whatever its weighting of borrower welfare vs...
• Rules of thumb for sovereign debt crises AI翻译
  作者：Manasse, Paolo; Roubini, Nouriel
  作者单位：University of Bologna; New York University
  摘要：This paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Classification and Regression Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of rules of thumb that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of ...
• Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals AI翻译
  作者：Molodtsova, Tanya; Papell, David H.
  作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Emory University
  摘要：An extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following Meese and Rogoffs [Meese, R.A., Rogoff, K., 1983a, Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out of Sample? journal of International Economics 14,3-24.] seminal paper has not convincingly found evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability This paper extends the conventional set of models of exchange rate determination by investigating predictability of models that incor...
• China's Great Economic Transformation AI翻译
  作者：Prasad, Eswar S.
  作者单位：Cornell University
• On the origins of comparative advantage AI翻译
  作者：Costinot, Arnaud
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit, There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of ...
• The effects of loss aversion on trade policy: Theory and evidence AI翻译
  作者：Tovar, Patricia
  作者单位：Brandeis University
  摘要：We study the implications of loss aversion for trade policy determination and show how it allows us to explain a number of important and puzzling features of trade policy. Some important questions concerning trade policy are why a disproportionate share of protection goes to declining industries and why trade policy has an anti-trade bias. We show that if individual preferences exhibit sufficient loss aversion, higher protection will be given to sectors in which profitability is declining. We ...
• Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics AI翻译
  作者：Baier, Scott L.; Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.
  作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Clemson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; University of Notre Dame; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
  摘要：This paper provides the first cross-section estimates of long-run treatment effects of free trade agreements on members' bilateral international trade flows using (nonparametric) matching econometrics. Our nonparametric cross-section estimates of ex post long-run treatment effects are much more stable across years and have more economically plausible values than corresponding OLS cross-section estimates from typical gravity equations. We provide plausible estimates of the long-run effects of m...
• The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter? AI翻译
  作者：Gust, Christopher; Leduc, Sylvain; Sheets, Nathan
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
  摘要：This paper assesses whether partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices has important implications for the prospective adjustment of global external imbalances. To address this question, we develop and estimate an open-economy DSCE model in which pass-through is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing, distribution services, and a variable demand elasticity that leads to fluctuations in optimal markups. We find that the overall magnitude of trade adjustment is similar i...
• Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S. (vol 74, pg 362, 2008) AI翻译
  作者：Kim, Soyoung; Roubini, Nouriel
  作者单位：Korea University; New York University
• When NGOs go global: Competition on international markets for development donations AI翻译
  作者：Aldashev, Gani; Verdier, Thierry
  作者单位：University of Namur; University of Southampton
  摘要：Why are many large non-governmental organizations (NGOs) becoming multinational entities? What are the welfare implications of this integration of markets for development donations? To answer these questions, we build a simple two-country model with horizontally differentiated NGOs competing in fundraising. We find that NGCs become multinational if the economies of scale in fundraising are sufficiently large. In that case, national NGOs in the smaller country disappear, while some national NGO...