Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baier, Scott L.; Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; Clemson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; University of Notre Dame; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.09.006
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 63-76
• 关键词: International trade flows; Free trade agreements; Matching econometrics; treatment effects

摘要

This paper provides the first cross-section estimates of long-run treatment effects of free trade agreements on members' bilateral international trade flows using (nonparametric) matching econometrics. Our nonparametric cross-section estimates of ex post long-run treatment effects are much more stable across years and have more economically plausible values than corresponding OLS cross-section estimates from typical gravity equations. We provide plausible estimates of the long-run effects of membership in the original European Economic Community (EEC) and the Central American Common Market (CACM) between 1960 and 2000 and the estimates confirm anecdotal reports of these agreements' effectiveness. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.