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作者：Minetti, Raoul; Romanini, Giacomo; Ziv, Oren
作者单位：Michigan State University; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：International lending flows are often intermediated through banking hubs and complex multinational routing. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where global banks choose the path of direct or indirect lending through partner institutions in multiple countries. We show how conflating locational loan flows with ultimate lending biases results both by attributing ultimate lending to banking hubs, and by missing ultimate lending that occurs indirectly via third countries. We ...
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作者：Cotterlaz, Pierre; Guillouzouic, Arthur
作者单位：Aix-Marseille Universite; Institut Polytechnique de Paris
摘要：This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms' network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framewo...
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作者：Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：Universite Paris-Pantheon-Assas; Lancaster University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite de Lorraine
摘要：The contractionary effect of technology shocks on hours gradually vanishes over time in OECD countries. To rationalize the decline in hours and its disappearance, we use a VAR-based decomposition of technology shocks into symmetric and asymmetric technology improvements. While hours decline dramatically when technology improves at the same rate across sectors, hours significantly increase when technology improvements occur at different rates. Because they are primarily driven by symmetric tech...
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作者：Gong, Robin Kaiji; Li, Yao Amber; Manova, Kalina; Sun, Stephen Teng
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of London; University College London; City University of Hong Kong; City University of Hong Kong
摘要：We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. ...
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作者：Kolasa, Marcin; Ravgotra, Sahil; Zabczyk, Pawel
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Warsaw School of Economics; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents & aacute; la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several puzzling aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and helps explain why some of them only arise in the nested case of rational expectations. Bayesian estimation of the model demonstrates that a high degree of cognitive discounting significantly improves empirical fit. We al...
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作者：Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj; Reiter, Lorenz; Yotov, Yoto V.
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Vienna University of Economics & Business; Drexel University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine ...
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作者：Boeck, Maximilian; Mori, Lorenzo
作者单位：University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Padua
摘要：We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing-a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysi...
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作者：Faber, Marius; Kilic, Kemal; Kozliakov, Gleb; Marin, Dalia
作者单位：Technical University of Munich; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. I...
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作者：Stein, Hillary
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand's dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand's largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent surprise...
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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Mirkov, Nikola N.; Zhang, Xin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank's bond purchases in the 2015-2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all...
