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作者：Halliday, Timothy J.; Lynham, John; de Paula, Aureo
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of London; University College London
摘要：The negative consequences of long-term exposure to particulate pollution are well established but a number of studies find no effect of short-term exposure on health outcomes. The high correlation of industrial pollutants complicates the estimation of the impact of individual pollutants on health. In this study, we use emissions from Kilauea volcano, which are uncorrelated with other pollution sources, to estimate the impact of pollutants on local emergency room admissions and a precise measur...
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作者：Borjas, George J.; Kauppinen, Ilpo; Poutvaara, Panu
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; VATT Institute for Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：The Roy model has more precise predictions about the self-selection of migrants than previously realised. The conditions shown to result in positive or negative selection in terms of expected earnings also imply a stochastic dominance relationship between the earnings distributions of migrants and non-migrants. We test these predictions using the Danish full population administrative data. We find strong evidence of positive self-selection of emigrants in terms of pre-emigration earnings and r...
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作者：Carneiro, Pedro; Galasso, Emanuela; Ginja, Rita
作者单位：University of London; University College London; The World Bank; University of Bergen; Uppsala University
摘要：We study a Chilean programme that combines home visits to households in extreme poverty with guaranteed access to social services. Its goal was to connect marginalised families to the social system to improve their living conditions. Programme impacts are identified using regression discontinuity exploring the fact that eligibility is a discontinuous function of an index of family income and assets. There is no evidence of short or long-term effects on employment or housing. However, we find s...
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作者：Li, Xing; Liu, Chong; Weng, Xi; Zhou, Li-An
作者单位：Peking University
摘要：Motivated by the prevalence of economic targets at all levels of territory administration in China, this article proposes a Tullock contest model to study optimal target setting in a multi-layered tournament-based organisation. In our model, targets are used by upper-level officials to convey the importance of economic growth and incentivise subordinates in the tournaments. Our model predicts a top-down amplification of economic growth targets along the jurisdiction levels, which explains the ...
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作者：Bakker, Gerben; Crafts, Nicholas; Woltjer, Pieter
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Warwick; University of Groningen
摘要：We develop new aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth estimates for the USA between 1899 and 1941, and sectoral estimates at the most disaggregated level so far, 38 industries. We include hard-to-measure services, and a refined measure of sectoral labour quality growth. The resulting data set supersedes Kendrick (1961), showing TFP growth lower than previously thought, broadly based across industries, and strongly variant intertemporally. The four 'great inventions' that Gordon (2016...
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作者：Bentzen, Jeanet Sinding
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
摘要：Religious beliefs potentially influence individual behaviour. But why are some societies more religious than others? One possible answer is religious coping: individuals turn to religion to deal with unbearable and unpredictable life events. To investigate whether coping can explain global differences in religiosity, I combine a global dataset on individual-level religiosity with spatial data on natural disasters. Individuals become more religious if an earthquake recently hit close by. Even t...
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作者：Francesconi, Marco; James, Jonathan
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Bath
摘要：We estimate the effect of binge drinking on road accidents, accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and arrests using a variety of unique English data and a two-sample instrumental variables estimation procedure. Drinking $10+$ units of alcohol in a single session increases road accidents by 18.6%, injury-related A&E attendances by 6.6% and arrests by 71%. The marginal increase from eight to $10+$ alcoholic units implies nearly 6,100 extra road accidents every year, 63,000 additional A&E atte...
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作者：Ignacio Garcia-Perez, J.; Marinescu, Ioana; Vall Castello, Judit
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Barcelona; University of Barcelona
摘要：By reducing the commitmentmade by employers, fixed-term contracts can help low-skilled youth find a first job. However, the long-term impact of fixed-term contracts on these workers' careers may be negative. Using Spanish social security data, we analysed the impact of a large liberalisation in the regulation of fixed-term contracts in 1984. Using a cohort regression discontinuity design, we find that over the first 10 years in the labour market, the reform reduced the number of days worked (b...
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作者：Gavrilova, Evelina; Kamada, Takuma; Zoutman, Floris
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350 kilometres) and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking. In addition, we find that MMLs in inland states lead to a reduction in crime in the nearest border state. Our results are consistent with the theory that decriminalisation of the production and distribution of marijuana lead...
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作者：Ghosh, Atish R.; Qureshi, Mahvash S.; Tsangarides, Charalambos G.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite ('multilateral') exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Constructing a novel bilateral exchange rate regimes data set for 181 countries over 1980-2011, we find a statistically strong relationship between exchange rate flex...
