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作者：Boucher, Stephen R.; Carter, Michael R.; Flatnes, Jon Einar; Lybbert, Travis J.; Malacarne, Jonathan G.; Marenya, Paswel P.; Paul, Laura A.
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作者：Docquier, Frederic; Iandolo, Stefano; Rapoport, Hillel; Turati, Riccardo; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague
作者单位：University of Salerno; Paris School of Economics; Autonomous University of Barcelona; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Universite Catholique Louvain
摘要：We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960-2019) as main source of data. We characterise the evolution of populism over sixty years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill content of globalisation. Specifically, imports of goods that are intensive in low-skill labour generate more right-wing populism, and low-skill immigration shifts the distribution of votes to the right, with more votes for right-wing populist parties and f...
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作者：Dolado, Juan J.; Lale, Etienne; Turon, Helene
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; York University - Canada; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We develop an equilibrium search model of the coexistence of regular and flexible work arrangements, calibrated to evaluate the UK's zero-hours contract. Our findings reveal mixed equilibrium and welfare effects. Zero-hours contracts stimulate job creation among firms facing highly volatile business conditions, increasing total employment but potentially reducing regular jobs. Simultaneously, zero-hours contracts boost labour force participation by attracting individuals who prefer flexible wo...
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作者：Pedemonte, Mathieu; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectation-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an anchoring-to-the-past mechanism. Using survey data, we show that the model replicates US consumers' inflation expectations and their heterogeneity across cohorts. We introduce this mechanism into a New Keynesian m...
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作者：Jetter, Michael
作者单位：University of Western Australia
摘要：Is humanity's circle of moral concern expanding? I explore frequencies of morally universal language in 15 million book publications in American English, British English, French, Spanish, German and Italian from 1800-2000. In each language, morally universal terminology diminished markedly. This pattern also emerges in Chinese, Russian and Hebrew books. I test two prominent hypotheses predicting moral universalism, pertaining to reason and religiosity. Reason-based terminology indeed correlate...
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作者：Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. This paper shows that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on long-standing within-country disparities. We use social media data-Facebook interests-to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. The approach is first validated with a cross-country analysis of patience and Facebook in...
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作者：Knittel, Christopher R.; Stolper, Samuel
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We test the ability of causal forests to improve, through selective targeting, the effectiveness of a randomised program providing repeated behavioural nudges towards household energy conservation. The average treatment effect of the program is a monthly electricity reduction of 9 kilowatt hours (kWh), but the full distribution of predicted reductions ranges from roughly 1 to 33 kWh. Pre-treatment electricity consumption and home value are the strongest predictors of differential treatment eff...
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作者：Kerwin, Jason T.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper shows that responses to disease risks can be 'fatalistic': higher risk beliefs can lead to more risk-taking rather than less. Intuitively, this can occur because high risk beliefs raise not only the chance of contracting the disease (which raises the marginal cost of risk-taking), but also the perceived chance that you are already infected (which lowers the marginal cost). I test for fatalism by randomly providing information about the true (low) average risk of HIV transmission in ...
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作者：De Haan, Monique; Schreiner, Ragnhild C.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Oslo
摘要：Exploiting rich administrative data from Norway, we estimate non-parametric bounds around the average causal effect of parental welfare participation on children's welfare participation for children that grew up in welfare-dependent families. We find upper bounds well below the intergenerational association and substantially below existing local average treatment effect estimates in the literature. Our results show that a substantial portion of the observed intergenerational correlation in wel...
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作者：Desmet, Klaus; Ortin, Ignacio Ortuno; Ozak, Omer
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper analyses whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct ethnolinguistic identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,153 subnational regions in 177 countries. We validate th...
