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作者：Feng, Alan; Li, Haishi; Wang, Yulin
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; International Monetary Fund; University of Hong Kong
摘要：Are landlocked countries at risk from sea-level rise? We identify a new mechanism where natural disaster shocks influence countries' macroeconomic performance through cross-border trade spillovers. Analysing global data on climate disasters, infrastructure, trade and the macroeconomy from 1970 to 2019, we find that climate disasters impact ports and critical infrastructure for international trade and reduce imports, exports and economic output in both the affected country and its major trade p...
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作者：Chiovelli, Giorgio; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Elias; Regan, Tanner
作者单位：Universidad de Montevideo; Brown University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; George Washington University
摘要：Satellite images of nighttime lights are commonly used to proxy local economic conditions. Despite their popularity, there are concerns about how accurately they capture local development in different settings and at different scales. We compile an annual series of comparable nighttime lights globally from 1992 to 2023 by applying adjustments that consider key factors affecting accuracy and comparability over time: top coding, blooming, and variations in satellite systems (DMSP and VIIRS). Whe...
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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Lee, Barton E.; Yousaf, Hasin
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：We study how political culture interacts with a democracy's ability to pursue ambitious policy agendas. We conceptualise a political culture as voters' possibly misspecified beliefs about the quality of their democracy's political class and institutions. Within a standard model of political agency, political culture drives both voters' and politicians' choices. In a cultural equilibrium, reality constrains culture to be consistent with long-term observations of political and economic outcomes....
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作者：Bobonis, Gustavo J.; Gertler, Paul J.; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Nichter, Simeon
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Does combating corruption reduce clientelism? To investigate this question, we focus on a policy that has been widely used across the world: anti-corruption audits. We examine the impact of Brazil's prominent audit programme on clientelism using a novel survey of rural citizens. Randomised audits reduce politicians' provision of campaign handouts, decrease citizens' demands for private goods, and reduce requests fulfilled by politicians. We investigate mechanisms by which audits may reduce cli...
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作者：Wang, Tianxi
作者单位：University of Essex
摘要：Central banks move the interbank borrowing rate through nominal operations that alter the private sector's portfolio of fiat money and government bonds. This paper elucidates a mechanism by which such operations move the interbank rate, thereby affecting bank lending and thence the wide economy. At the core is a liquidity constraint to which bank lending is subject. By affecting the maximal tightness of banks' liquidity constraints, the aggregate portfolio of fiat money and bonds determines th...
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作者：Mitchener, Kris James; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj; Wandschneider, Kirsten
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作者：Ajayi, Kehinde F.; Friedman, Willa H.; Lucas, Adrienne M.
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University of Delaware; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Delaware
摘要：We implemented a large-scale randomised controlled trial encompassing 900 junior high schools in Ghana, a country with universal secondary school choice, to study whether providing students and parents with information on school characteristics and selection strategies improved outcomes in a centralised school selection mechanism. Information changed households' preferences and the characteristics of schools to which they applied. Students gained admission to higher value-added schools, yet th...
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作者：Park, Junghum
作者单位：Bank of Lithuania; Vilnius University
摘要：This paper analyses overconfident strategic traders whose private information involves correlated errors. The analysis on the effects of two types of overconfidence-overconfidence in own signals and underconfidence in others' signals-provides richer implications than our typical understanding of overconfidence as follows. First, trading volume decreases (increases) with underconfidence in others' signals (overconfidence in own signals). Second, whereas overconfidence in own signals can explain...
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作者：Preston, Andrew
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：This paper develops a theory of how total factor productivity news shocks can affect the economy via a Keynesian supply channel. With frictional labour markets, bad total factor productivity news reduces firms' incentive to post vacancies, worsening households' employment prospects. Households respond by accumulating liquid assets and cutting spending for precautionary reasons, triggering a recession that compounds the labour-market downturn. This mechanism is outlined analytically and numeric...
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作者：Benhima, Kenza; Blengini, Isabella; Merrouche, Ouarda
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Applied Sciences & Arts Western Switzerland; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：This paper highlights the disagreement channel of corporate foreign currency borrowing. In our model, if domestic agents have better information than foreign lenders on the state of the economy, foreign currency borrowing might arise if the fundamentals are strong relative to what public signals suggest to foreigners. In these situations, international markets overestimate future currency depreciation, which increases the cost of borrowing in domestic currency. Domestic agents then borrow more...
