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作者：Bi, Huixin; Leeper, Eric M.; Leith, Campbell
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Monash University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Glasgow
摘要：This article explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition either taxor spending based are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilising government debt. We argue t...
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作者：Clots-Figueras, Irma; Masella, Paolo
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Sussex
摘要：The process of individual identity formation is still an enigma, as is the capacity of public bodies to intervene in it. In 1983, the Catalan education system became bilingual, and Catalan, along with Spanish, was taught in schools. Using survey data from Catalonia we show that respondents who have been exposed for a longer time period to teaching in Catalan have stronger Catalan feelings. The effect also appears to be present among individuals whose parents do not have Catalan origins; in add...
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作者：Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Gancia, Gino
作者单位：Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability with informational frictions and uncertainty. When politicians' ability is ex ante unknown and policy choices are unobservable, elections improve political accountability and selection. However, incumbents underinvest in costly policies with future returns to signal high ability and increase re-election probability. Surprisingly, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may increase social welfare. We...
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作者：Denes, Matthew; Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Gilbukh, Sophia
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Cutting government spending can increase the budget deficit at zero interest rates according to a standard New Keynesian model, calibrated with Bayesian methods. Similarly, increasing sales taxes can increase the budget deficit rather than reducing it. Both results suggest limitations of austerity measures'. At zero interest rates, running budget deficits can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on how they interact with expectations about long-run taxes and spending. The effect ...
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作者：Nakov, Anton; Nuno, Galo
作者单位：Banco de Espana; European Central Bank
摘要：In this study, we document two features that have made Saudi Arabia different from other oil producers. First, it has typically maintained ample spare capacity. Second, its production has been quite volatile even though it has witnessed few domestic shocks. These features can be rationalised in a general equilibrium model in which the oil market is modelled as a dominant producer with a competitive fringe. We show that the net welfare effect of oil tariffs on consumers is null. The reason is t...
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作者：Giovannetti, Emanuele; Magazzini, Laura
作者单位：Anglia Ruskin University; University of Verona
摘要：Empirical evidence on resale price maintenance (RPM) is scarce. This article provides novel empirical evidence based on a unique database of RPM complaints, lodged in the UK to the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) between 2007 and 2009. We describe the characteristics of the commodity being traded and of the relevant upstream and downstream firms and their sectors. We then present an econometric analysis to assess how the probability of compliance to the OFT request to withdraw the RPM can be affe...
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作者：Mondria, Jordi; Quintana-Domeque, Climent
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：We explain financial contagion between two stock markets with uncorrelated fundamentals using fluctuations in international investors' attention allocation. We also show that the degree of (non)anticipation of a crisis is crucial for the existence of contagion. Using daily data on stock market prices and news stories in the Financial Times, we find evidence supporting the attention reallocation mechanism of financial contagion: The higher the price volatility of the Asian market, the more abso...
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作者：de la Croix, David; Licandro, Omar
作者单位：Universite Catholique Louvain; Universite Catholique Louvain; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence from natural sciences that physical development during childhood affects adult life expectancy positively. This theory is embodied in a continuous time OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. We conclude that a sustained improvement in physical development is at the basis of the observed demographic transition in today's developed countries and may be an important fa...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Lopez-Salido, David; Michelacci, Claudio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We analyse how unemployment, job-finding and job-separation rates react to neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Neutral shocks increase unemployment and explain a substantial portion of it volatility; investment-specific shocks expand employment and hours worked and contribute to hours worked volatility. Movements in the job-separation rates are responsible for the impact response of unemployment while job-finding rates for movements along its adjustment path. The evidence warns ...
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作者：Alary, David; Gollier, Christian; Treich, Nicolas
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; INRAE
摘要：In this article, we derive a set of simple conditions such that ambiguity aversion always raises the demand for self-insurance and the insurance coverage, but decreases the demand for self-protection. We also characterise the optimal insurance design under ambiguity aversion and exhibit a case in which the straight deductible contract is optimal as in the expected utility model.
