Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bi, Huixin; Leeper, Eric M.; Leith, Campbell
• 署名单位: Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Monash University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Glasgow
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12011
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: F31-F63
• 关键词: POLITICAL-ECONOMY; POLICY; debt; monetary; crises

摘要

This article explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition either taxor spending based are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilising government debt. We argue that the conditions that could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the current economic environment.