The Child is Father Of the Man: Implications for the Demographic Transition

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: de la Croix, David; Licandro, Omar
• 署名单位: Universite Catholique Louvain; Universite Catholique Louvain; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02523.x
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 236-261
• 关键词: fertility decline; life expectancy; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; mortality; HEALTH; longevity; MODEL; population; education; difference

摘要

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence from natural sciences that physical development during childhood affects adult life expectancy positively. This theory is embodied in a continuous time OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. We conclude that a sustained improvement in physical development is at the basis of the observed demographic transition in today's developed countries and may be an important factor in explaining the slow transition from the Malthusian towards the Modern era. The dynamics of the proposed model reproduce the key features of the demographic transition, including sustained improvements in child physical development, permanent increase in life expectancy, a hump-shaped evolution of both population growth and fertility and late increases in secondary educational attainments.