The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Demand

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Howard, Greg
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180363
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 147-179
• 关键词: internal migration; market impacts; immigration; consumption; prices; decline

摘要

What is the role of migration in regional evolutions? I document that within-US migration causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of the receiving city over several years. To establish this causal effect, I construct an instrument using out-migration of other places and predict its destination from historical patterns. The decline in unemployment is due to housing. Housing is durable, so increased demand causes a surge of new houses and construction jobs. Additionally, migrants' housing demand raises prices, increasing borrowing and nontradable employment. This finding implies the endogenous response of migration amplifies local labor demand shocks by about a third.