Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando; Tretvoll, Hakon
• 署名单位: Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Statistics Norway; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180131
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 173-208
• 关键词: Emerging economies; world prices; terms; shocks; fluctuations

摘要

This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key-cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using -cross-country data.