Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ates, Sina T.; Saffie, Felipe E.
• 署名单位: University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180014
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 304-356
• 关键词: real business cycles; monetary-policy; PRODUCTIVITY; GROWTH; countries; frictions; shocks; MODEL; RISK; EXIT

摘要

We develop a tractable quantitative framework to study the productivity effects of financial crises. The model features endogenous productivity, heterogeneous firm dynamics, and aggregate risk. Selection of the most promising ideas gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirm the model's main mechanism, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer but better in terms of idiosyncratic productivity. The quantitative analysis shows that at the end of the crisis, total output is permanently 0.9 percent lower.