American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

最新文章

• US State Fiscal Policy and Natural Resources AI翻译
  作者：James, Alexander
  作者单位：University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Anchorage
  摘要：An analytical framework predicts that, in response to an exogenous increase in resource-based government revenue, a benevolent government will partially substitute away from taxing income, increase spending and save. Fifty-one years of US-state level data are largely consistent with this theory. A baseline fixed effects model predicts that a $1.00 increase in resource revenue results in a $0.25 decrease in nonresource revenue, a $0.43 increase in spending and a $0.32 increase in savings. Instr...
• New Evidence on Taxes and the Timing of Birth AI翻译
  作者：LaLumia, Sara; Sallee, James M.; Turner, Nicholas
  作者单位：Williams College; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; United States Department of the Treasury
  摘要：This paper uses data from the universe of tax returns filed between 2001 and 2010 to test whether parents shift the timing of childbirth around the New Year to gain tax benefits. Filers have an incentive to shift births from early January into late December, through induction or cesarean delivery, because child-related tax benefits are not prorated. We find evidence of a positive, but very small, effect of tax incentives on birth timing. An additional $1,000 of tax benefits increases the proba...
• The Tax Gradient: Spatial Aspects of Fiscal Competition AI翻译
  作者：Agrawal, David R.
  作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
  摘要：State borders create a discontinuous tax treatment of retail sales. In a Nash game, local tax rates will be higher on the low state tax side of a border. Local taxes will decrease from the nearest high-tax border and increase from the low-tax border. Using driving time from state borders and all local sales tax rates, local tax rates on the low-tax side of the border are 1.25 percentage points higher, reducing the differential in state tax rates by over three-quarters. A ten minute increase in...
• Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence from a Field Experiment AI翻译
  作者：Liebman, Jeffrey B.; Luttmer, Erzo F. P.
  作者单位：Harvard University; Dartmouth College
  摘要：This paper presents the results of a randomized field experiment that provided information about key Social Security features to older workers. The experiment was designed to examine whether it is possible to affect individual behavior using a relatively inexpensive informational intervention about the provisions of a public program and to explore the mechanisms underlying the behavior change. We find that our relatively mild intervention (sending an informational brochure and an invitation to...
• The Impact of Regulation on Mortgage Risk: Evidence from India AI翻译
  作者：Campbell, John Y.; Ramadorai, Tarun; Ranish, Benjamin
  作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA
  摘要：We employ loan-level data on over a million loans disbursed in India between 1995 and 2010 to understand how fast-changing regulation impacted mortgage lending and risk. Our paper uses changes in regulatory treatment discontinuities associated with loan size and leverage to detect regulation-induced loan delinquencies. We also find that an acceleration in the classification of assets as nonperforming resulted in substantially lower delinquency probabilities and losses given delinquency.
• The Economics of Nationalism AI翻译
  作者：Lan, Xiaohuan; Li, Ben G.
  作者单位：Fudan University; Fudan University; Boston College
  摘要：This paper provides an economic framework for examining how economic openness affects nationalism. Within a country, a region's level of nationalism varies according to its economic interests in its domestic market relative to its foreign market. All else being equal, increasing a region's foreign trade reduces its economic interests in its domestic market and thus weakens its nationalism. This prediction holds both cross-sectionally and over time, as evidenced by our empirical study using the...
• Only One Tree from Each Seed? Environmental Effectiveness and Poverty Alleviation in Mexico's Payments for Ecosystem Services Program AI翻译
  作者：Alix-Garcia, Jennifer M.; Sims, Katharine R. E.; Yanez-Pagans, Patricia
  作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Amherst College; Inter-American Development Bank
  摘要：Environmental conditional cash transfers are popular but their impacts are not well understood. We evaluate land cover and wealth impacts of a federal program that pays landowners for protecting forest. Panel data for program beneficiaries and rejected applicants allow us to control for fixed differences and time trends affecting both groups. We find the program reduces the expected land cover loss by 40-51 percent and generates small but positive poverty alleviation. Environmental gains are h...
• Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence AI翻译
  作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Berg, Tim O.; Sims, Eric R.
  作者单位：RWTH Aachen University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：There have been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations to stimulate spending. We examine the relationship between expected inflation and spending attitudes using the microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The impact of higher inflation expectations on the reported readiness to spend on durables is generally small, outside the zero lower bound, often statistically insignificant, and inside of it typically significantly negative. In our baseline speci...
• The Impact of Including, Adding, and Subtracting a Tax on Demand AI翻译
  作者：Feldman, Naomi E.; Ruffle, Bradley J.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Wilfrid Laurier University
  摘要：We test the equivalence of tax-inclusive, tax-exclusive and tax-rebate prices through a series of experiments differing only in their handling of the tax. Subjects receive a cash budget and decide how much to keep and how much to spend on various attractively priced goods. Subjects spend significantly more under tax-exclusive prices whereas total purchases under tax-inclusive and tax-rebate prices are similar. These results persist throughout most of the ten rounds despite feedback and the abi...
• Identity-Based Policies and Identity Manipulation: Evidence from Colonial Punjab AI翻译
  作者：Cassan, Guilhem
  作者单位：University of Namur
  摘要：I study identity-marker based policies and demonstrate the existence of identity manipulation. I analyze the impact of the Punjab Alienation of Land Act (1901), a caste-based legislation, on identity manipulation. Using data from the colonial census, I show that a movement of identity manipulation took place in response to the law. I estimate that in 20 years, 7.5 percent of the population that had an incentive to do so manipulated its identity. I then use an accounting exercise to estimate th...