Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bachmann, Ruediger; Berg, Tim O.; Sims, Eric R.
• 署名单位: RWTH Aachen University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20130292
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1-35
• 关键词: consumption; POLICY

摘要

There have been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations to stimulate spending. We examine the relationship between expected inflation and spending attitudes using the microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The impact of higher inflation expectations on the reported readiness to spend on durables is generally small, outside the zero lower bound, often statistically insignificant, and inside of it typically significantly negative. In our baseline specification, a one percentage point increase in expected inflation during the recent zero lower bound period reduces households' probability of having a positive attitude towards spending by about 0.5 percentage points. (JEL D12, D84, E21, E31, E52)