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作者：Jones, Benjamin F.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper investigates a possibly fundamental aspect of technological progress. If knowledge accumulates as technology advances, then successive generations of innovators may face an increasing educational burden. Innovators can compensate through lengthening educational phases and narrowing expertise, but these responses come at the cost of reducing individual innovative capacities, with implications for the organization of innovative activity-a greater reliance on teamwork-and negative impl...
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作者：Fujiwara-Greve, Takako; Okuno-Fujiwara, Masahiro
作者单位：Keio University; University of Tokyo
摘要：Ordinary repeated games do not apply to real societies where one can cheat and escape from partners. We formulate a model of endogenous relationships that a player can unilaterally end and start with a randomly assigned new partner with no information flow. Focusing on two-person, two-action Prisoner's Dilemma, we show that the endogenous duration of partnerships generates a significantly different evolutionary stability structure from ordinary random matching games. Monomorphic equilibria req...
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作者：Tervioe, Marko
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A basic problem facing most labour markets is that workers can neither commit to long-term wage contracts nor can they self-finance the costs of production. I study the effects of these imperfections when talent is industry-specific; it can only be revealed on the job, and once learnt becomes public information. I show that firms bid excessively for the pool of incumbent workers at the expense of trying out new talent. The workforce is then plagued with an unfavourable selection of individuals...
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作者：Giacomini, Raffaella; Rossi, Barbara
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample performance of the model, judged by some loss function, is significantly worse than its in-sample performance. Our framework, which is valid under general conditions, can be used not only to detect past forecast breakdowns but also to predict futu...
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作者：Chang, Yoosoon; Song, Wonho
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Chung Ang University
摘要：An IV approach, using as instruments non-linear transformations of the lagged levels, is explored to test for unit roots in panels with general dependency and heterogeneity across cross-sectional units. We allow not only for the cross-sectional dependencies of innovations, but also for the presence of co-integration across cross-sectional levels. Unbalanced panels and panels with differing individual short-run dynamics and cross-sectionally related dynamics are also permitted. We also more car...
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作者：Lee, David S.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the Job Corps program, one of the largest federally funded job training programs in the U.S. Even with the aid of a randomized experiment, the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection, a pervasive problem in applied microeconometric research. Wage rates are only observed for those who are employed, and employment status itself may be affected by the training program. This paper develops an intuit...
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作者：Bai, Jushan; Carrion-I-Silvestre, Josep Lluis
作者单位：New York University; University of Barcelona
摘要：This paper studies the problem of unit root testing in the presence of multiple structural changes and common dynamic factors. Structural breaks represent infrequent regime shifts, while dynamic factors capture common shocks underlying the comovement of economic time series. We examine the modified Sargan-Bhargava (MSB) test in the panel data setting and propose ways to handle multiple structural changes and dynamic factors. Properties of the MSB test under these non-standard conditions are de...
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作者：Potters, Jan; Suetens, Sigrid
作者单位：Tilburg University
摘要：We conduct a laboratory experiment aimed at examining whether strategic substitutability and strategic complementarity have an impact on the tendency to cooperate in finitely repeated two-player games with a Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibrium. We find that there is significantly more cooperation when actions exhibit strategic complementarities than in the case of strategic substitutes. The difference is to some extent driven by a difference in the speed with which some pairs reach stable full...
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作者：Gavazza, Alessandro; Lizzeri, Alessandro
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We provide a two period model of political competition in which voters imperfectly observe the electoral promises made to other voters. Imperfect observability generates an incentive for candidates to offer excessive transfers even if voters are homogeneous and taxation is distortionary. Government spending is larger than in a world of perfect observability. Transfers are partly financed through government debt, and the size of the debt is higher in less transparent political systems. The mode...
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作者：Kambourov, Gueorgui; Manovskii, Iourii
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：In this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related. We are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the U.S. was as high as 16% a year in the early 1970's and had increased to 21% by the mid-1990's. We develop a general equilibrium model with occupation-specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations. We find that the model, ca...
