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作者：Mueller, Ulrich K.; Petalas, Philippe-Emmanuel
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：The paper investigates inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian models with moderately time-varying parameters. We show that for many decision problems, the sample information about the parameter path can be summarized by an artificial linear and Gaussian model, at least asymptotically. The approximation allows for computationally convenient path estimators and parameter stability tests. Also, in contrast to standard Bayesian techniques, the artificial model can be robustified so that in missp...
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作者：Anderson, Siwan; Ray, Debraj
作者单位：University of British Columbia; New York University
摘要：Relative to developed countries and some parts of the developing world, most notably sub-Saharan Africa, there are far fewer women than men in India and China. It has been argued that as many as a 100 million women could be missing. The possibility of gender bias at birth and the mistreatment of young girls are widely regarded as key explanations. We provide a decomposition of these missing women by age and cause of death. While we do not dispute the existence of severe gender bias at young ag...
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作者：Blum, Bernardo S.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：In this paper, I ask the question: Does the output-mix of countries change in response to changes in factor endowments? If so: How long does it take? Using data on capital, as well as skilled and unskilled labour employed in three-digit International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) manufacturing industries for a sample of 27 developing and developed countries over the 1973-1990 period, I find that the output-mix of countries does not change in response to endowment changes, even afte...
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作者：Gautier, Pieter A.; Teulings, Coen N.; Van Vuuren, Aico
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Amsterdam
摘要：This paper characterizes the equilibrium for a large class of search models with two-sided heterogeneity and on-the-job search. Besides the well-known congestion externalities, we show that on-the-job search in combination with monopsonistic wage setting without commitment creates a business-stealing externality. In the absence of congestion effects, this leads to excessive vacancy creation. Under wage setting with commitment this externality is absent because when posting a wage, firms take i...
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作者：Basak, Suleyman; Yan, Hongjun
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Yale University
摘要：This article analyses the implications of money illusion for investor behaviour and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal quantities. The impact of money illusion on security prices and their dynamics is demonstrated to be considerable even though its welfare cost on investors is small in typical environments. A money-illusioned...
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作者：Battaglini, Marco; Morton, Rebecca B.; Palfrey, Thomas R.
作者单位：Princeton University; New York University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：This paper reports the first laboratory study of the swing voter's curse and provides insights on the larger theoretical and empirical literature on pivotal voter models. Our experiment controls for different information levels of voters, as well as the size of the electorate, the distribution of preferences and other theoretically relevant parameters. The design varies the share of partisan voters and the prior belief about a payoff relevant state of the world. Our results support the equilib...
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作者：Helpman, Elhanan; Itskhoki, Oleg
作者单位：Harvard University; Princeton University
摘要：We study a two-country, two-sector model of international trade in which one sector produces homogeneous products and the other produces differentiated products. Both sectors are subjected to search and matching frictions in the labour market and wage bargaining. As a result, some of the workers searching for jobs end up being unemployed. Countries are similar except for frictions in their labour markets, such as efficiency of matching and costs of posting vacancies, which can vary across the ...
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作者：Bonhomme, Stephane; Robin, Jean-Marc
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Universite Paris Cite; University of London; University College London
摘要：In this paper, we construct a non-parametric estimator of the distributions of latent factors in linear independent multi-factor models under the assumption that factor loadings are known. Our approach allows estimation of the distributions of up to L(L + 1)/2 factors given L measurements. The estimator uses empirical characteristic functions, like many available deconvolution estimators. We show that it is consistent, and derive asymptotic convergence rates. Monte Carlo simulations show good ...
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作者：Bandiera, Oriana; Barankay, Iwan; Rasul, Imran
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Pennsylvania; University of London; University College London
摘要：We present evidence on social incentives in the workplace, namely on whether workers' behaviour is affected by the presence of those they are socially tied to, even in settings where there are no externalities among workers due to either the production technology or the compensation scheme in place. To do so, we combine data on individual worker productivity from a firm's personnel records with information on each worker's social network of friends in the firm. We find that compared to when sh...
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作者：Guembel, Alexander; Sussman, Oren
作者单位：University of Oxford; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：We develop a theory of sovereign borrowing where default penalties are not implementable. We show that when debt is held by both domestic and foreign agents, the median voter might have an interest in serving it. Our theory has important practical implications regarding (a) the role of financial intermediaries in sovereign lending, (b) the effect of capital flows on price volatility including the possible overvaluation of debt to the point that the median voter is priced out of the market, and...
