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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Mondragon, Jorge
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
摘要：This article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative...
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作者：Mullainathan, Sendhil; Obermeyer, Ziad
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use machine learning as a tool to study decision making, focusing specifically on how physicians diagnose heart attack. An algorithmic model of a patient's probability of heart attack allows us to identify cases where physicians' testing decisions deviate from predicted risk. We then use actual health outcomes to evaluate whether those deviations represent mistakes or physicians' superior knowledge. This approach reveals two inefficiencies. Physicians overtest: predictably low-risk patients...
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作者：Chalendard, Cyril; Fernandes, Ana M.; Raballand, Gael; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); Utrecht University
摘要：This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar's main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our a...
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作者：Michelman, Valerie; Price, Joseph; Zimmerman, Seth D.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Brigham Young University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：This article studies how exclusive social groups shape upward mobility and whether interactions between low- and high-status peers can integrate the top rungs of the economic and social ladders. Our setting is Harvard University in the 1920s and 1930s, where new groups of students arriving on campus encountered a social system centered on exclusive old boys' clubs. Combining archival and census records, we first show that students from prestigious private feeder schools are overrepresented in ...
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Ji, Yunan; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
摘要：Government programs are often offered on an optional basis to market participants. We explore the economics of such voluntary regulation in the context of a Medicare payment reform, in which one medical provider receives a single, predetermined payment for a sequence of related healthcare services, instead of separate service-specific payments. This bundled payment program was originally implemented as a five-year randomized trial, with mandatory participation by hospitals assigned to the new ...
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作者：Frydman, Cary; Jin, Lawrence J.
作者单位：University of Southern California; California Institute of Technology
摘要：We experimentally test a theory of risky choice in which the perception of a lottery payoff is noisy due to information processing constraints in the brain. We model perception using the principle of efficient coding, which implies that perception is most accurate for those payoffs that occur most frequently. Across two preregistered laboratory experiments, we manipulate the distribution from which payoffs in the choice set are drawn. In our first experiment, we find that risk taking is more s...
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作者：Kermani, Amir; Ma, Yueran
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a new data set to study asset specificity among nonfinancial firms. Our data cover the liquidation values of each category of assets on firms' balance sheets and provides information across major industries. First, we find that nonfinancial firms have high asset specificity. For example, the liquidation value of fixed assets is 35% of the net book value in the average industry. Second, we analyze the determinants of asset specificity and document that assets' physical attributes (e....
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作者：Hazell, Jonathon; Herreno, Juan; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to ...
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作者：Biasi, Barbara; Sarsons, Heather
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Does flexible pay increase the gender wage gap? To answer this question, we analyze the wages of public school teachers in Wisconsin, where a 2011 reform allowed school districts to set teachers' pay more flexibly and engage in individual negotiations. Using quasi-exogenous variation in the timing of the introduction of flexible pay, driven by the expiration of preexisting collective-bargaining agreements, we show that flexible pay lowered the salaries of women compared with men with the same ...
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作者：Arteaga, Felipe; Kapor, Adam J.; Neilson, Ciiristopiier A.; Zimmerman, Seth D.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：Many school districts with centralized school choice adopt strategy-proof assignment mechanisms to relieve applicants from needing to strategize based on beliefs about their own admissions chances. This article shows that beliefs about admissions chances shape choice outcomes even when the assignment mechanism is strategy-proof by influencing how applicants search for schools and that smart matching platforms that provide live feedback on admissions chances help applicants search more effectiv...
