The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from US States*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hazell, Jonathon; Herreno, Juan; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac010
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1299-1344
• 关键词: inflation dynamics; expectations; prices; identification; unemployment; COSTS

摘要

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.