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作者：vom Lehn, Christian; Winberry, Thomas
作者单位：Brigham Young University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We argue that the network of investment production and purchases across sectors is an important propagation mechanism for understanding business cycles. Empirically, we show that the majority of investment goods are produced by a few investment hubs, which are more cyclical than other sectors. We embed this investment network into a multisector business cycle model and show that sector-specific shocks to the investment hubs and their key suppliers have large effects on aggregate employment and...
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作者：Clayton, Christopher; Schaab, Andreas
作者单位：Yale University; Columbia University
摘要：We study the scope for international cooperation in macroprudential policies. Multinational banks contribute to and are affected by fire sales in countries they operate in. National governments setting quantity regulations noncooperatively fail to achieve the globally efficient outcome, underregulating domestic banks and overregulating foreign banks. Surprisingly, noncooperative national governments using revenue-generating Pigouvian taxation can achieve the global optimum. Intuitively, this o...
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作者：Montiel Olea, Jose Luis; Ortoleva, Pietro; Pai, Mallesh M.; Prat, Andrea
作者单位：Cornell University; Princeton University; Rice University; Columbia University
摘要：Different agents need to make a prediction. They observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. We study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability-as measured by the smallest subjective posterior mean squared prediction error-and show how it depends on the sample size. With small samples, we present results suggesting it is an agent using a low-dimensional model. With large samples, it is generally an agent with a high-di...
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作者：Gethin, Amory; Martinez-Toledano, Clara; Piketty, Thomas
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Imperial College London
摘要：This article sheds new light on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies. We exploit a new database on the socioeconomic determinants of the vote, covering more than 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. In the 1950s and 1960s, the vote for social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise in the 2010s to a disconnection bet...
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作者：Ilut, Cosmin; Valchev, Rosen
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
摘要：We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent b...
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作者：Cook, Lisa D.; Jones, Maggie E. C.; Logan, Trevon D.; Rose, David
作者单位：Michigan State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Emory University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：The economic analysis of racial discrimination in public accommodations is remarkably limited. To study this issue, we construct a national data set of nondiscriminatory establishments from the Negro Motorist Green Books, a travel guide published from 1936 to 1966 to aid Black Americans in finding nondiscriminatory retail and service establishments. We document patterns in the geographic spread and evolution of Green Book establishments, as well as the correlates of Green Book presence. We fin...
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作者：Barr, Andrew; Eggleston, Jonathan; Smith, Alexander A.
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; United States Military Academy
摘要：We provide new evidence that cash transfers following the birth of a first child can have large and long-lasting effects on that child's outcomes. We take advantage of the January 1 birthdate cutoff for U.S. child-related tax benefits, which results in families of otherwise similar children receiving substantially different refunds during the first year of life. For the average low-income single-child family in our sample, this difference amounts to roughly $1,300, or 10% of income. Using the ...
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作者：Knutsson, Daniel; Tyrefors, Bjorn
作者单位：Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Stockholm University
摘要：Economic theory predicts that outsourcing public services to private firms reduces costs, but the effect on quality is ambiguous. We explore quality differences between publicly and privately owned ambulances in Stockholm County, Sweden, a setting where patients are as good as randomly assigned to ambulances with different ownership status. We find that private ambulances reduce costs and perform better on contracted measures such as response time, but perform worse on noncontracted measures s...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Argente, David
作者单位：University of Chicago; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We use three quasi-natural experiments in Mexico and one in Panama to estimate the effects of having the option to pay with cash on Uber rides. The ability to pay in cash affects the demand for rides, which is reflected in large changes in the total number of trips, fares, miles, and number of users after Uber introduced cash payments, particularly in lower-income city blocks. On the other hand, the effects on prices, estimated times of arrival, and competitor pricing are negligible, consisten...
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作者：Xu, Chenzi
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：I show that a disruption to the financial sector can reshape the patterns of global trade for decades. I study the first modern global banking crisis originating in London in 1866 and collect archival loan records that link multinational banks headquartered there to their lending abroad. Countries exposed to bank failures in London immediately exported significantly less and did not recover their lost growth relative to unexposed places. Their market shares within each destination also remaine...
