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作者：Correia, Sergio; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive noncore funding. These commonalities imply that bank failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Failures with runs were common before deposit insurance, but the...
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作者：Burstein, Ariel T.; Carvalho, Vasco M.; Grassi, Basile
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Cambridge; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University
摘要：We study markup cyclicality in a granular macroeconomic model with oligopolistic competition. We first characterize how firm, sectoral, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation in response to firm-level shocks. We quantify the model's ability to reproduce salient features of the cyclical properties of measured markups in French administrative firm-level data from the bottom (firm) level to the aggregate level. We document that (i) firm-level markups rise with...
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作者：Corradini, Viola; Lagos, Lorenzo; Sharma, Garima
作者单位：Columbia University; Brown University; Northwestern University
摘要：We study the role of unions in improving workplaces for women. Starting in 2015, Brazil's largest trade union federation made women central to its agenda. Using a difference-in-differences design that leverages variation in union affiliation to this federation, we find that bargaining for women increased female-friendly amenities in collective bargaining agreements and in practice. These changes led women to queue for jobs at treated establishments and separate from them less-both revealed-pre...
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作者：Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Bonn; University of Cologne
摘要：Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations is not well understood. This article explores economic agents' mental models of what drives returns. We survey the general population, retail investors, financial professionals, and academic experts to investigate how they forecast and explain future returns in scenarios with stale news about future company earnings. We find that investors strongly disagree in their forecasts and reasoning....
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Lanzani, Giacomo; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：We present a theory of choice in which attention to the features of options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant and contextual problem-level features. The model yields heterogeneity in attention and choice in a given problem based on different past experiences and instability when changes in irrelevant context cause recategorization. We show that heterogeneous and unstab...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien; Kanzig, Diego R.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1 degrees C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth mod...
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作者：Nguyen, Kieu-Trang
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：This article shows that a CEO's trust enhances innovation within a firm, providing a novel micro-foundation for the well-known trust-growth relationship. I build a new matched CEO-firm-patent data set covering 5,753 CEOs in 3,598 U.S. public firms and 700,000 patents during 2000-2011. I exploit variation in generalized trust across CEO ethnic origins, inferred from their last names using deanonymized historical censuses. Following CEO turnovers, a one standard deviation increase in a CEO's gen...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Hurst, Erik
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages-two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly match...
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作者：Ang, Desmond; Chinoy, Sahil
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Nearly 400,000 Black men were drafted into the National Army during World War I, where they toiled primarily as menial laborers in segregated units. Leveraging novel variation from the World War I draft lottery and millions of digitized military and NAACP records, we document the pioneering role these men played in the early civil rights movement. Relative to observably similar individuals from the same draft board, Black men randomly inducted into the Army were significantly more likely to jo...
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作者：Miyauchi, Yuhei; Nakajima, Kentaro; Redding, Stephen J.
作者单位：Boston University; Hitotsubashi University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We develop a tractable quantitative framework for modeling the rich patterns of spatial mobility observed in smartphone data. We show that travel is frequently undertaken as part of a travel itinerary, defined as a journey starting and ending at home that can include more than one intermediate stop on a given day. We show that these travel itineraries provide microfoundations for consumption externalities and generate both complementarity and substitutability between locations. We show that th...
