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作者：Bostanci, Gorkem; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Stock markets play a dual role: they provide information about firms' fundamentals, which improves resource allocations, and they provide liquidity. We propose a setting in which these two roles interact: if stocks are used more intensively for liquidity, then prices reveal less information about fundamentals. We structurally estimate stock price informativeness for several countries and show that it declines when alternative liquidity sources, such as banks, are in distress. To study the real...
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作者：Finkelstein, Amy; Gentzkow, Matthew; Li, Dean
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop and estimate a dynamic model of risky prescription opioid use that allows us to unpack the role of person- and place-specific drivers of the opioid epidemic and assess the impact of state opioid policies. Event studies indicate that among adults receiving federal disability insurance from 2006 to 2019, moves to states with higher rates of risky use produce an immediate jump in the probability of risky use, followed by an additional gradual increase for the next several years. Using ...
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作者：Hill, Ryan; Stein, Carolyn
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This article investigates how competition to publish first and thereby establish priority affects the quality of scientific research. We begin by developing a model where scientists decide whether and how long to work on a given project. When deciding how long they should let their projects mature, scientists trade off the marginal benefit of higher-quality research against the marginal risk of being preempted. Projects with the highest scientific potential are the most competitive because the...
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作者：Ash, Elliott; Chen, Daniel L.; Naidu, Suresh
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Columbia University
摘要：This article empirically studies the effects of the early law and economics movement on the U.S. judiciary. We focus on the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges, an intensive economics course that trained almost half of federal judges between 1976 and 1999. Using the universe of published opinions in U.S. Circuit Courts and 1 million District Court criminal sentencing decisions, we estimate the within-judge effect of Manne program attendance. Selection into attendance was limited, as t...
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作者：Andrew, Alison; Adams, Abi
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：We develop a new methodology to estimate subjective beliefs from hypothetical-choice data. Our identification approach is based on the novel insight that by varying the amount of information on future realizations of stochastic variables, discrete-choice experiments can identify not only preferences but also subjective beliefs. We formally prove this result in a general setting and apply it to design a strategic survey instrument to measure Rajasthani parents' subjective beliefs over the joint...
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作者：Moreno-Medina, Jonathan; Ouss, Aurelie; Bayer, Patrick; Ba, Bocar A.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas at San Antonio; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University
摘要：This article examines language patterns in U.S. television news coverage of police killings. First, we document that the media use syntactic structures-such as passive voice, nominalizations, and intransitive verbs-that obscure responsibility more often in cases of police killings than in cases of civilian killings. Through an online experiment, we demonstrate the significance of these syntactic differences, revealing that participants are less likely to hold police officers morally responsibl...
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作者：Barbosa-Alves, Mauricio; Bianchi, Javier; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：University of Kentucky; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article investigates how a government should manage international reserves when it faces the risk of a rollover crisis. We ask: Should the government accumulate reserves or reduce debt to make itself less vulnerable? We show that the optimal policy entails initially reducing debt, followed by a subsequent increase in both debt and reserves as the government approaches a safe zone. Furthermore, we find that issuing additional debt to accumulate reserves can lead to a reduction in sovereign...
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作者：Alsan, Marcella; Neberai, Yousra
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：This article examines how the American Medical Association (AMA) helped shape the development of the U.S. health insurance system in the critical period after World War II. Working with the political public relations firm Campaigns, Inc., the AMA launched a nationwide campaign to weaken support for national health insurance by framing it as socialized medicine, while simultaneously enrolling people in private health insurance plans to shift demand away from a public alternative. Drawing on new...
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作者：Adao, Rodrigo; Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave
作者单位：University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The primary motivation behind quantitative work in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes and other shocks. To help assess and potentially strengthen the credibility of such quantitative predictions, we introduce an IV-based goodness-of-fit measure that provides the basis for testing causal predictions in arbitrary general equilibrium environments as well as for estimating the average misspecification in these predictions. As a...
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作者：Kuziemko, Ilyana; Longuet-Marx, Nicolas; Naidu, Suresh
作者单位：Princeton University; Stanford University; Columbia University
摘要：We argue that the Democratic Party's evolution on economic policy helps explain partisan realignment by education. First, we document that educated Americans differentially oppose predistribution (e.g., job guarantees, higher minimum wages, protectionism, and stronger unions), while the educational gradient for redistribution (taxes and transfers) is close to zero. These relationships have been largely unchanged since the 1940s. Second, focusing on politicians and donors as key party actors, w...
