A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Lanzani, Giacomo; Shleifer, Andrei
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; Bocconi University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjag023
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: PROSPECT-THEORY; RISK; SALIENCE; MODEL; JUDGMENT; DECISION; categorization; probability; perception; Similarity

摘要

We present a theory of choice in which attention to the features of options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant and contextual problem-level features. The model yields heterogeneity in attention and choice in a given problem based on different past experiences and instability when changes in irrelevant context cause recategorization. We show that heterogeneous and unstable representations of a choice problem unify major biases in judgment and decision making.