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作者：Graeber, Thomas; Noy, Shakked; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：Information often spreads and influences beliefs regardless of its reliability. We show that this occurs in part because indicators of reliability tend to be lost in the process of word-of-mouth transmission. We conduct controlled experiments where participants listen to economic forecasts and pass them on through voice messages. Other participants listen either to original or transmitted audio recordings and report incentivized beliefs. Across various transmitter incentive schemes, a claim's ...
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作者：Espin-Sanchez, Jose-Antonio; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Ryan, Nicholas
作者单位：Yale University; University of Murcia
摘要：We study rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. We present a model in which a religious leader tries to persuade people to believe. Praying for rain can persuade only where the hazard of rainfall during a dry spell is increasing over time, so that prayer is most likely to succeed when people most want rain. We present evidence from prayers for rain in Murcia, Spain, where the hazard rate is increasing, that the church's prayers for rain predict rainfall over two centuries. To generali...
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作者：Arteaga, Carolina; Barone, Victoria
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Notre Dame
摘要：In this article, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment between the Republican and Democratic parties. Drawing on unsealed records from litigation against Purdue Pharma, we uncover rich geographic variation in the marketing of prescription opioids that serves as a quasi-exogenous source of exposure to the epidemic. We use this variation to document signifi...
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作者：Lane, Nathan
作者单位：University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：I study the effect of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their effects during and after the intervention period. I reveal that HCI policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. Using variation in exp...
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作者：Derenoncourt, Ellora; Weil, David
作者单位：Princeton University; Brandeis University
摘要：Low unionization rates, a falling real federal minimum wage, and outsourcing have hampered wage growth in the low-wage sector in the United States for several decades. In recent years (2014-2023), a number of large private retailers-including some of the largest employers in the United States-have opted to institute or raise company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) for their employees. We use anonymized payroll data from a large credit bureau and a major payroll provider to study the effec...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：This article studies the effects of automation in a task-based economy in which some jobs pay workers rents-wages above workers' outside options. We show that automation targets high-rent tasks, dissipating rents, amplifying wage losses, and reducing within-group wage dispersion in exposed groups. This form of rent dissipation is inefficient and offsets the productivity gains from automation. Using U.S. data from 1980 to 2016, we find evidence of sizable rent dissipation and reduced within-gro...
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作者：Alsan, Marcella; Barnett, Arkey; Hull, Peter; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Brown University; Harvard University
摘要：A long-standing and influential view in U.S. correctional policy is that nothing works when it comes to rehabilitating incarcerated individuals. We revisit this hypothesis by studying an innovative law-enforcement-led program launched in the county jail of Flint, MI: Inmate Growth Naturally and Intentionally through Education (IGNITE). We develop an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effects of IGNITE exposure, leveraging quasi-random court delays that cause individuals to spend m...
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作者：Emanuel, Natalia; Harrington, Emma; Pallais, Amanda
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Virginia; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：How does proximity to coworkers affect training and productivity? We study software engineers at a Fortune 500 firm from 2019 to 2024, leveraging two shocks to proximity: the office closures in 2020 and the subsequent return-to-office mandates in 2022 and 2023. In both cases, co-located teams experienced bigger changes in proximity than distributed ones, facilitating difference-in-differences designs. We find that sitting near teammates increases coding feedback by 18.3% and improves code qual...
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作者：Arellano, Cristina; Bai, Yan; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：This article develops a New Keynesian model with sovereign default risk. Inflation is set by forward-looking firms, monetary policy is an interest rate rule, and the fiscal government borrows externally, long-term, with an option to default. In this framework, default risk creates inflation pressures through an expectations channel, and tight monetary policy disincentivizes fiscal overborrowing. The model sheds light on temporary inflation events in emerging-market data: short-lived spikes in ...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Dann, Christopher; Dray, Sacha
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stanford University; The World Bank
摘要：This article explores the relationship between economic growth and trust in government using variation in GDP growth experienced over a lifetime since birth. We assemble a newly harmonized global data set across 11 major opinion surveys, comprising 3.3 million respondents in 166 countries since 1990. Exploiting cohort-level variation, we find that people who have experienced higher GDP growth are more prone to trust their governments, with larger effects found in democracies. Higher-growth exp...
