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作者：Sieg, Holger; Yoon, Chamna
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We consider a dynamic game of electoral competition with adverse selection, moral hazard, and imperfect monitoring. We show that this dynamic game can be estimated using a flexible maximum likelihood estimator. We implement the estimator using data from recent mayoral elections in large US cities with binding two-term limits. Our empirical findings suggest that there are large differences in performance among different types of mayors. We find an economically important degree of policy respons...
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作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Kleinberg, Jon; Liang, Annie; Mullainathan, Sendhil
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Cornell University; Northwestern University; University of Chicago
摘要：Economic models are evaluated by testing the correctness of their predictions. We suggest an additional measure, completeness: the fraction of the predictable variation in the data that the model captures. We calculate the completeness of prominent models in three problems from experimental economics: assigning certainty equivalents to lotteries, predicting initial play in games, and predicting human generation of random sequences. The completeness measure reveals new insights about these mode...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：Lipnowski, Elliot; Ravid, Doron; Shishkin, Denis
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：A sender commissions a study to persuade a receiver but influences the report with some probability. We show that increasing this probability can benefit the receiver and can lead to a discontinuous drop in the sender's payoffs. To derive our results, we geometrically characterize the sender's highest equilibrium payoff, which is based on the concavification of a capped value function.
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作者：Egan, Mark; Matvos, Gregor; Seru, Amit
作者单位：Harvard University; Northwestern University; Stanford University
摘要：We examine gender differences in misconduct punishment in the financial advisory industry. There is a gender punishment gap: following an incident of misconduct, female advisers are 20% more likely to lose their jobs and 30% less likely to find new jobs, relative to male advisers. The gender punishment gap is not driven by gender differences in occupation, productivity, nature of misconduct, or recidivism. The gap in hiring and firing dissipates at firms with a greater percentage of female man...
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作者：Bernard, Benjamin; Capponi, Agostino; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：This paper endogenizes intervention in financial crises as the strategic negotiation between a regulator and creditors of distressed banks. Incentives for banks to contribute to a voluntary bail-in arise from their exposure to financial contagion. In equilibrium, a bail-in is possible only if the regulator's threat to not bail out insolvent banks is credible. Contrary to models without intervention or with government bailouts only, sparse networks enhance welfare for two main reasons: they imp...
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作者：Kawai, Kei; Nakabayashi, Jun
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Kindai University (Kinki University)
摘要：We document evidence of widespread collusion among construction firms in Japan using a novel data set covering most of the construction projects procured by the Japanese national government. Our data set contains information on about 42,000 auctions whose award amount sums to about $40 billion. We identify collusion by focusing on rebids that occur for auctions in which all (initial) bids fail to meet the secret reserve price. We identify more than 1,000 firms whose conduct is inconsistent wit...
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作者：Anderson, Stephen J.; McKenzie, David
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; The World Bank
摘要：Many small firms lack the finance and marketing skills needed for growth. A standard approach is to train the entrepreneur in these skills. However, rather than requiring entrepreneurs to learn everything, an alternative is to move beyond the boundary of the entrepreneur and link firms to these skills in a marketplace through insourcing workers or outsourcing tasks to professionals. We conducted a randomized experiment in Nigeria to test the relative effectiveness of these different approaches...
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作者：Fe, Eduardo; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
作者单位：University of Manchester; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes, and we emphasize the importance of childhood theory of mind. Experimental data show that (i) theory-of-mind ability and cognitive ability both predict level k behavior, (ii) older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent, and (iii) theory of mind (but not cognitive ability) predicts whether children respond to intentions. Using longitudinal data, we find that c...
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作者：Kovach, Matthew; Tserenjigmid, Gerelt
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We provide the first behavioral characterization of nested logit, a foundational and widely applied discrete-choice model, through the introduction of a nonparametric version of nested logit that we call nested stochastic choice (NSC). NSC is characterized by a single axiom that weakens independence of irrelevant alternatives on the basis of revealed similarity to allow for the similarity effect. Nested logit is characterized by an additional menu-independence axiom. Our axiomatic characteriza...
