Measuring the Completeness of Economic Models

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Fudenberg, Drew; Kleinberg, Jon; Liang, Annie; Mullainathan, Sendhil
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Cornell University; Northwestern University; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/718371
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: players models; prediction; probability; utility; CHOICE; RISK

摘要

Economic models are evaluated by testing the correctness of their predictions. We suggest an additional measure, completeness: the fraction of the predictable variation in the data that the model captures. We calculate the completeness of prominent models in three problems from experimental economics: assigning certainty equivalents to lotteries, predicting initial play in games, and predicting human generation of random sequences. The completeness measure reveals new insights about these models, including how much room there is for improving their predictions.