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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Demirer, Mert; Duflo, Esther; Fernandez-Val, Ivan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high-dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied (but not necessarily consistently estimated) by predictive and causal machine learning methods....
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作者：Farrokhi, Farid; Lashkaripour, Ahmad
作者单位：Boston College; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Trade policy is often cast as a solution to the free-riding problem in international climate agreements. This paper examines the extent to which trade policy can deliver on this promise. We incorporate global supply chains of carbon and climate externalities into a multi-country, multi-industry general equilibrium trade model. By deriving theoretical formulas for optimal carbon and border taxes, we quantify the maximum efficacy of two trade policy solutions to the free-riding problem. Adding o...
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作者：Lanzani, Giacomo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：I consider an agent who posits a set of probabilistic models for the payoff-relevant outcomes. The agent has a prior over this set but fears the actual model is omitted and hedges against this possibility. The concern for misspecification is endogenous: If a model explains the previous observations well, the concern attenuates. I show that different static preferences under uncertainty (subjective expected utility, maxmin, robust control) arise in the long run, depending on how quickly the age...
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作者：Ely, Jeffrey C.; Georgiadis, George; Rayo, Luis
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University
摘要：We study the joint design of dynamic incentives and performance feedback for an environment with a coarse (all-or-nothing) measure of performance, and show that hiding information from the agent can be an optimal way to motivate effort. Using a novel approach to incentive compatibility, we derive a two-phase solution that begins with a silent phase where the agent is given no feedback and is asked to work non-stop, and ends with a full-transparency phase where the agent stops working as soon a...
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作者：Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Afrouzi, Hassan; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff; Ponce, Jorge
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Columbia University; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University ORT Uruguay; Universidad de Montevideo; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Auckland University of Technology; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation h...
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作者：Itskhoki, Oleg; Mukhin, Dmitry
作者单位：Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the observation of a sharp and simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates in 1973. It is commonly viewed as a central piece of evidence in favor of monetary non-neutrality because it is an instance in which a change in the monetary regime caused a dramatic change in the equilibrium behavior of a real variable-the real exchange rate-and is often further interpre...
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作者：Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Mikosch, Thomas; Rahbek, Anders; Vilandt, Frederik
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Exeter; University of Copenhagen; University of Copenhagen
摘要：Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic ...
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作者：Spiess, Jann
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：Econometric analysis typically focuses on the statistical properties of fixed estimators and ignores researcher choices. In this article, I instead approach the analysis of experimental data as a mechanism-design problem that acknowledges that researchers choose between estimators, sometimes based on the data and often according to their own preferences. Specifically, I focus on covariate adjustments, which can increase the precision of a treatment-effect estimate, but open the door to bias wh...
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作者：Vatter, Benjamin
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Policymakers and market intermediaries often use quality scores to alleviate asymmetric information about product quality. Scores affect the demand for quality and, in equilibrium, its supply. Equilibrium effects break the rule whereby more information is always better, and the optimal design of scores must account for them. In the context of Medicare Advantage, I find that consumers' information is limited, and quality is inefficiently low. A simple design alleviates these issues and increase...
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作者：European Summer Meeting
