Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Afrouzi, Hassan; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff; Ponce, Jorge
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Columbia University; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University ORT Uruguay; Universidad de Montevideo; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Auckland University of Technology; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22764
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 229-264
• 关键词: expectations

摘要

Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.