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作者：Bertrand, Marianne; Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Tsivanidis, Nick
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) requires large manufacturing plants to pay substantial costs if they wish to shrink their workforce. Since the early 2000s, these large plants have dramatically increased their use of contract workers who are not subject to these regulatory constraints. Between 2000 and 2015, the contract labor share in non-managerial employment nearly doubled at establishments with more than 100 workers (from 21 to 40 percentage points), while it only increased from 14 to...
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作者：Collier, Benjamin L.; Ellis, Cameron M.; Keys, Benjamin J.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Temple University; University of Iowa; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：How do collateral requirements impact consumer borrowing behavior? Using administrative loan application and performance data from the U.S. Federal Disaster Loan Program, we exploit a loan amount threshold above which households must post their residence as collateral. Our bunching estimates suggest that the median borrower is willing to give up 40% of their loan amount to avoid posting collateral. Exploiting time variation in the threshold, we estimate collateral causally reduces default rate...
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作者：Kawai, Kei; Sunada, Takeaki
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Tokyo; University of Rochester
摘要：We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage-point differences in t...
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作者：Ali, S. Nageeb; Mihm, Maximilian; Siga, Lucas
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; University of Essex
摘要：This paper offers a strategic rationale for zero-sum thinking in elections. We show that asymmetric information and distributional considerations together make voters wary of policies supported by others. This force impels a majority of voters to support policies contrary to their preferences and information. Our analysis identifies and interprets a form of adverse correlation that is necessary and sufficient for zero-sum thinking to prevail in equilibrium.
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作者：Iacovone, Leonardo; McKenzie, David; Meager, Rachael
作者单位：The World Bank; The World Bank; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation cannot reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes li...
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop a stylized model that allows us to estimate a value-added measure for nursing homes (SNFs) which accounts for patient selection both into and out of a SNF. We use the model, together with detailed data on the physical and mental health of about 6 million Medicare SNF patients between 2011 and 2016, to estimate the value added for about 14,000 distinct SNFs. We document substantial heterogeneity in value added. Nationwide, compared to a 10th percentile SNF, a 90th percentile SNF is a...
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作者：Ottinger, Sebastian; Voigtlander, Nico
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom var...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Vivek; Illanes, Gaston; Padi, Manisha
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Fiduciary duty aims to solve principal-agent problems, and the United States is in the middle of a protracted debate surrounding the merits of extending it to all financial advisers. Leveraging a transaction-level data set of deferred annuities and state-level variation in common law fiduciary duty, we find that it raises risk-adjusted returns by 25 bp and leads to a 16% decline in the entry of affected firms. Through the lens of a model of entry and advice provision, we show that this effect ...
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作者：Kolotilin, Anton; Zapechelnyuk, Andriy
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：A principal can restrict an agent's information (the persuasion problem) or discretion (the delegation problem). We study these two problems under standard single-crossing assumptions on the agent's marginal utility. We show that these problems are equivalent on the set of monotone stochastic mechanisms, implying, in particular, the equivalence of deterministic delegation and monotone partitional persuasion. We also show that the monotonicity restriction is superfluous for linear persuasion an...
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作者：Gai, Qingen; Guo, Naijia; Li, Bingjing; Shi, Qinghua; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural-to-urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium househol...
