Econometrica

最新文章

• How Well Does Bargaining Work in Consumer Markets? A Robust Bounds Approach AI翻译
  作者：Freyberger, Joachim; Larsen, Bradley J.
  作者单位：University of Bonn; Washington University (WUSTL); National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This study provides a structural analysis of detailed, alternating-offer bargaining data from eBay, deriving bounds on buyers and sellers private value distributions and the gains from trade using a range of assumptions on behavior and the informational environment. These assumptions range from weak (assuming only that acceptance and rejection decisions are rational) to less weak (e.g., assuming that bargaining offers are weakly increasing in players' private values). We estimate the bounds an...
• Making Subsidies Work: Rules versus Discretion AI翻译
  作者：Cingano, Federico; Palomba, Filippo; Pinotti, Paolo; Rettore, Enrico
  作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Princeton University; Bocconi University; University of Padua; Fondazione Bruno Kessler; FBK-IRVAPP - Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies
  摘要：We estimate the employment effects of a large program of public investment subsidies to private firms that ranked applicants on a score reflecting both objective rules and local politicians' discretion. Leveraging the rationing of funds as an ideal Regression Discontinuity Design, we characterize the heterogeneity of treatment effects and cost-per-new-job across inframarginal firms and estimate the cost-effectiveness of subsidies under factual and counterfactual allocations. Firms ranking high...
• Privatizing Disability Insurance AI翻译
  作者：Seibold, Arthur; Seitz, Sebastian; Siegloch, Sebastian
  作者单位：University of Munich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Manchester; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); University of Cologne
  摘要：Public disability insurance (DI) programs in many countries face growing fiscal pressures, prompting efforts to reduce spending. In this paper, we investigate the welfare effects of expanding the role of private insurance markets in the face of public DI cuts. We exploit a reform that abolished one part of German public DI and use unique data from a large insurer. We document modest crowding-out effects of the reform, such that private DI take-up remains incomplete. We find no adverse selectio...
• Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses AI翻译
  作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
  摘要：There has been a call for caution regarding the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non-uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only ...
• Women in Science. Lessons From the Baby Boom AI翻译
  作者：Kim, Scott; Moser, Petra
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：This paper investigates how children affect women in science, using biographies in the American Men of Science (MoS 1956), linked with publications. First, we show that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity: While other scientists peak in their mid-30s, mothers become less productive at that age and reach peak productivity in their early-40s. Next, we estimate event studies of marriage, comparing mothers and fathers with other married scientists. Event study estimates show t...
• A Comment on: Fisher-Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val AI翻译
  作者：Imai, Kosuke; Li, Michael Lingzhi
  作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard University
  摘要：We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad appli...
• Minimum Wages, Efficiency, and Welfare AI翻译
  作者：Berger, David; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Mongey, Simon
  作者单位：Duke University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
  摘要：Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency losses from monopsony power. We assess this argument in a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms. We decompose welfare gains into an efficiency component that captures reductions in monopsony power and a redistributive component that captures the way minimum wages shift resources across people. The minimum wage that maximizes the efficiency component of welfare lies below $8.00 and yiel...
• The Econometric Society Annual Reports Report of the Treasurer AI翻译
  作者：Lipman, Barton
• Who Benefits From Surge Pricing? AI翻译
  作者：Castillo, Juan Camilo
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：New technologies have recently led to a boom in real-time pricing. I study the most salient example, surge pricing in ride hailing. Using data from Uber, I develop an empirical model of spatial equilibrium to measure the welfare effects of surge pricing. The model is composed of demand, supply, and a matching technology. It allows for temporal and spatial heterogeneity as well as randomness in supply and demand. I find that, relative to a uniform pricing counterfactual in which Uber sets the o...
• SELECTING THE MOST EFFECTIVE NUDGE: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE-SCALE EXPERIMENT ON IMMUNIZATION AI翻译
  作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Dalpath, Suresh; Duflo, Esther; Floretta, John; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kannan, Harini; Loza, Francine; Sankar, Anirudh; Schrimpf, Anna; Shrestha, Maheshwor
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute; The World Bank
  摘要：Policymakers often choose a policy bundle that is a combination of different interventions in different dosages. We develop a new technique-treatment variant aggregation (TVA)-to select a policy from a large factorial design. TVA pools together policy variants that are not meaningfully different and prunes those deemed ineffective. This allows us to restrict attention to aggregated policy variants, consistently estimate their effects on the outcome, and estimate the best policy effect adjustin...