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作者：Ottinger, Sebastian; Voigtlander, Nico
作者单位：Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom var...
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作者：Navjeevan, Manu; Pinto, Rodrigo; Santos, Andres
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; State University System of Florida; University of South Florida; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study instrumental variables models characterized by: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity consisting of potential outcomes and response types that describe how the instrument determines treatment choice; (ii) Conditional independence of the instrument and the unobserved heterogeneity; and (iii) Convex restrictions on the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We show certain causal parameters are identified in these models if and only if a version of the kappa of Abadie (2003) exists. Our ident...
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作者：Samuelson, Larry
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作者：Luo, Daniel; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study reputation formation where a long-run player repeatedly observes private signals and takes actions. Short-run players observe the long-run player's past actions but not her past signals. The long-run player can thus develop a reputation for playing a distribution over actions, but not necessarily for playing a particular mapping from signals to actions. Nonetheless, we show that the long-run player can secure her Stackelberg payoff if distinct commitment types are statistically distin...
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作者：Wager, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. This note was prepared as a comment on the Fisher-Schultz paper by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fern & aacute;ndez-Val, forthcom...
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作者：Cattaneo, Matias D.; Cox, Gregory F.; Jansson, Michael; Nagasawa, Kenichi
作者单位：Princeton University; National University of Singapore; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Warwick
摘要：Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the arg max of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such asymptotic distributions admit a continuous distribution function. The plausibility of the sufficient conditions is demonstrated by verifying them in three examples, namely, maximum score estimation, empirical risk minimization, and threshold regression estimation. In ...
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作者：Fanning, Jack
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：A buyer and seller bargain in continuous time over a good. Bargainers can be rational or committed to some fixed price. A rational buyer has a private value and outside option. If the set of buyer values and commitment types is rich and the probability of commitment vanishes, outcomes are partially consistent with the Coase conjecture: the seller chooses a price below the maximum of the lowest outside option and half the lowest value; the buyer immediately accepts or takes his outside option.
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作者：Kolotilin, Anton; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the problem of a partisan gerrymanderer who assigns voters to equipopulous districts to maximize his party's expected seat share. The designer faces both aggregate, district-level uncertainty (how many votes his party will receive) and idiosyncratic, voter-level uncertainty (which voters will vote for his party). Segregate-pair districting, where weaker districts contain one type of voter, while stronger districts contain two, is optimal for the gerrymanderer. The optimal form of segr...
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作者：Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
作者单位：Stockholm University; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We construct a dynamic integrated assessment model of climate and the economy with very high geographic resolution. Migration is free within, but not allowed across, countries. The model parameterization uses a wealth of data, including the distribution of output, population, energy sources and use, and estimates of the local damages from climate change. It implies very large geographic dispersion in damages from warming. We conduct three kinds of policy experiments. In one, we note that a mod...
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作者：Gai, Qingen; Guo, Naijia; Li, Bingjing; Shi, Qinghua; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural-to-urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium househol...
