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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Demirer, Mert; Duflo, Esther; Fernandez-Val, Ivan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
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作者：Montiel Olea, Jose Luis; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel; Qian, Eric; Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Chicago; Princeton University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This result follows from a double robustness property analogous to that of popular partially linear regression estimators. By contrast, the conventional VAR confidence interval with short-to-moderate lag length can seve...
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作者：Kapor, Adam
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：Transparency versus opacity is an important dimension of college admission policy. Colleges may gain useful information from a holistic review of applicants' materials, but in doing so may contribute to uncertainty that discourages potential applicants with poor information. This paper investigates the impacts of admissions transparency in the context of Texas' Top Ten Percent Plan, using survey and administrative data from Texas and a model of college applications, admissions, enrollment, gra...
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作者：Lau, Morten I.; Yoo, Hong Il
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Durham University; Loughborough University; University of Cape Town
摘要：Structural measures of higher order risk attitudes have well-developed foundations in Expected Utility Theory (EUT), but little is known about their empirical magnitudes. We introduce a novel experimental design and a companion econometric model that allows us to structurally estimate indices of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance under EUT without imposing restrictions on their interdependence. We find that indices of absolute risk aversion, prudence, and temperance exhibit distinct patte...
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作者：Breunig, Christoph; Liu, Ruixuan; Yu, Zhengfei
作者单位：University of Bonn; Chinese University of Hong Kong; University of Tsukuba
摘要：We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct the posterior distribution of the resulting ATE. Both adjustments make use of pilot estimators motivated by the semiparametric influence function for ATE estimation. We prove asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian procedure and efficient frequentist ATE est...
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作者：Cox, Christian
作者单位：University of Arizona
摘要：The U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission deregulated campaign finance, enabling the rise of a new political action committee (the Super PAC) with broad freedom to raise and spend money. This led to an unprecedented surge in spending in primary and general elections. To evaluate the impact of Super PACs, I estimate a multistage model of political competition using data from U.S. Congressional elections between 2010 and 2020. I find that Super PAC ...
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作者：Davis, Jonathan M. V.; Greenberg, Kyle; Jones, Damon
作者单位：University of Oregon; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Chicago
摘要：Internal labor markets are increasingly important for matching workers to jobs within organizations. We present evidence from a randomized trial that compares matching workers to jobs using the deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm to the traditional manager-directed matching process. Our setting is the U.S. Army's internal labor market, which matches over 14,000 officers to units annually. We find that DA reduces administrative burden and increases match quality as measured by reduced justified ...
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作者：Halac, Marina
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作者：Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Imbert, Clement; Ulyssea, Gabriel
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper studies the economic effects of rural-urban migration on Brazilian cities. Using a shift-share IV design, we show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and increases the number of formal firms and jobs. Downward formal wage adjustments play a key role, as these long-run effects are weaker in regions with stronger wage rigidity. In the short run, when wage rigidity is strongest, we replicate the informality-increasing eff...
