The American Economic Review

最新文章

• Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle AI翻译
  作者：Crouzet, Nicolas; Mehrotra, Neil R.
  作者单位：Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
  摘要：This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unr...
• Relational Contracting, Negotiation, and External Enforcement AI翻译
  作者：Watson, Joel; Miller, David A.; Olsen, Trond E.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
  摘要：We study relational contracting and renegotiation in environments with external enforcement of long-term contractual arrangements. A long-term contract governs the stage games that the contracting parties will play in the future (depending on verifiable stage-game outcomes) until they renegotiate. In a contractual equilibrium, the parties choose their individual actions rationally, jointly optimize when selecting a contract, and exercise their relative bargaining power. Our main result is that...
• Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? AI翻译
  作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Jones, Charles, I; Van Reenen, John; Webb, Michael
  作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
  摘要：Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore's Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s....
• The Dynamics of Motivated Beliefs AI翻译
  作者：Zimmermann, Florian
  作者单位：University of Bonn; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
  摘要：A key question in the literature on motivated reasoning and self-deception is how motivated beliefs are sustained in the presence of feedback. In this paper, we explore dynamic motivated belief-patterns after feedback. We establish that positive-feedback has a persistent effect on beliefs. Negative feedback, instead, influences beliefs in the short run, but this effect fades over time. We-investigate the mechanisms of this dynamic pattern, and provide evidence for an asymmetry in the recall of...
• Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks versus Responsiveness AI翻译
  作者：Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：The pace of job reallocation has declined in the United States in recent decades. We draw insight from canonical models of business dynamics in which reallocation can decline due to (i) lower dispersion of idiosyncratic shocks faced by businesses, or (ii) weaker marginal responsiveness of businesses to shocks. We show that shock dispersion has actually risen, while the responsiveness of business-level employment to productivity has weakened. Moreover, declining responsiveness can account for a...
• Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance AI翻译
  作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
  摘要：I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) forward guidance language shapes the private sector's responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemployment rate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinati...
• Do Parents Value School Effectiveness? AI翻译
  作者：Abdulkadiroglu, Atila; Pathak, Parag A.; Schellenberg, Jonathan; Walters, Christopher R.
  作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：School choice may lead to improvements in school productivity if parents' choices reward effective schools and punish ineffective ones. This mechanism requires parents to choose schools based on causal effectiveness rather than peer characteristics. We study relationships among parent preferences, peer quality, and causal effects on outcomes for applicants to New York city's centralized high school assignment mechanism. We use applicants' rank-ordered choice lists to measure preferences and to...
• Learning under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference AI翻译
  作者：Mailath, George J.; Samuelson, Larry
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Australian National University; Yale University
  摘要：People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models. How do people hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a model of model-based inference. Model-based reasoners partition an otherwise hopelessly complex state space into a manageable model. Unless the differences in agents' models are trivial, interactions will often not lead agents to have common beliefs or beliefs near the correct-model belief If the agents' models have enough...
• Time Discounting and Wealth Inequality AI翻译
  作者：Epper, Thomas; Fehr, Ernst; Fehr-Duda, Helga; Kreiner, Claus Thustrup; Lassen, David Dreyer; Leth-Petersen, Soren; Rasmussen, Gregers Nytoft
  作者单位：University of St Gallen; University of Zurich; University of Zurich; University of Zurich; University of Copenhagen
  摘要：This paper documents a large association between individuals' time discounting in incentivized experiments and their positions in the real-life wealth distribution derived from Danish high-quality administrative data for a large sample of middle-aged individuals. The association is stable over time, exists through the wealth distribution and remains large after controlling for education, income profile, school grades, initial wealth, parental wealth, credit constraints, demographics, risk pref...
• Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion AI翻译
  作者：Calvano, Emilio; Calzolari, Giacomo; Denicolo, Vincenzo; Pastorello, Sergio
  作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Bologna; University of Bologna; European University Institute; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bologna
  摘要：Increasingly, algorithms are supplanting human decision-makers in pricing goods and services. To analyze the possible consequences, we study experimentally the behavior of algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence (Q-learning) in a workhorse oligopoly model of repeated price competition. We find that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supracompetitive prices, without communicating with. one another. The high prices are sustained by collusive strategies with a finite phase of punis...