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作者：Porzio, Tommaso; Rossi, Federico; Santangelo, Gabriella
作者单位：Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick; University of Cambridge
摘要：We document that nearly half of the global decline in agricultural employment was driven by new cohorts entering the labor market. A new dataset of policy reforms supports an interpretation of these cohort effects as human capital. Using a model of frictional labor reallocation, we conclude that human capital growth led to a sharp decline in the agricultural labor supply, accounting, at fixed prices, for 40 percent of the decrease in agricultural employment. This aggregate effect is halved in ...
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作者：Andersen, Steffen; Badarinza, Cristian; Liu, Lu; Marx, Julie; Ramadorai, Tarun
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; National University of Singapore; University of Pennsylvania; Imperial College London; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We quantify reference dependence and loss aversion in the housing market using rich Danish administrative data. Our structural model includes loss aversion, reference dependence, financial constraints, and a sale decision, and matches key nonparametric moments, including a hockey stick in listing prices with nominal gains, and bunching at zero realized nominal gains. Households derive substan-tial utility from gains over the original house purchase price; losses affect households roughly 2.5 t...
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作者：Cabral, Marika; Cui, Can; Dworsky, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; RAND Corporation
摘要：Workers' compensation insurance, which provides no-fault coverage for work-related injuries, is mandatory in nearly all states. We use administrative data from a unique market without a coverage mandate to estimate the demand for workers' compensation insurance, leveraging regulatory premium updates for identification. We find that a 1 percent increase in premiums leads to approximately a 0.3 percent decline in coverage. Drawing upon these estimates and data on costs, we examine potential just...
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作者：Cao, Yiming; Chen, Shuo
作者单位：Boston University; Fudan University
摘要：This paper examines the effects of the abandonment of China's Grand Canal-the world's largest and oldest artificial waterway-which served as a disruption to regional trade access. Using an original dataset covering 575 counties over 262 years, we show that the canal's abandonment contributed to the social turmoil that engulfed North China in the nineteenth century. Counties along the canal experienced an additional 117 percent increase in rebelliousness after the canal's closure relative to th...
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作者：Lee, David s.; Mccrary, Justin; Moreira, Marcelo j.; Porter, Jack
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Getulio Vargas Foundation; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：In the single-IV model, researchers commonly rely on t-ratio-based inference, even though the literature has quantified its potentially severe large-sample distortions. Building on Stock and Yogo (2005), we introduce the tF critical value function, leading to a stan-dard error adjustment that is a smooth function of the first-stage F-statistic. For one-quarter of specifications in 61 AER papers, cor-rected standard errors are at least 49 and 136 percent larger than conventional 2SLS standard e...
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作者：Kranz, Sebastian; PUtz, Peter
作者单位：Ulm University; University of Bielefeld
摘要：Brodeur, Cook, and Heyes (2020) study hypothesis tests from eco-nomic articles and find evidence for p-hacking and publication bias, in particular for instrumental variable and difference-in-difference studies. When adjusting for rounding errors (introducing a novel method), statistical evidence for p-hacking from randomization tests and caliper tests at the 5 percent significance threshold vanishes for difference-in-differnce studies but remains for instrumental variable studies. Results at t...
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作者：Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The challenge for stabilization policy presented by the COVID-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of the circular flow of payments, resulting in a failure of what Keynes (1936) calls effective demand. As a consequence, economic activity in many sectors can be inefficiently low, and interest-rate policy cannot eliminate the distortions-not because of a limit on the extent to which interest rates can be reduced, but because interest-rate reductions fail to stimulate demand of the right s...
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作者：Levy, Gilat; Razin, Ronny; Young, Alwyn
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views-which can be interpreted as populist world views-imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of t...
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作者：Bailey, Martha J.; Sun, Shuqiao; Timpe, Brenden
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; The World Bank; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln
摘要：This paper evaluates the long-run effects of Head Start using large-scale, restricted administrative data. Using the county roll-out of Head Start between 1965 and 1980 and age-eligibility cutoffs for school entry, we find that Head Start generated large increases in adult human capital and economic self-sufficiency, including a 0.-65-year increase in schooling, a 2.-7 percent increase in high school completion, an 8.5 percent increase in college enrollment, and a 39 percent increase in colleg...
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作者：Norris, Samuel; Pecenco, Matthew; Weaver, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of Chicago; Brown University; University of Southern California
摘要：Every year, millions of Americans experience the incarceration of a family member. Using 30 years of administrative data from Ohio and exploiting differing incarceration propensities of randomly assigned judges, this paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of parental and sibling incarceration in the United States. Parental incarceration has beneficial effects on some important outcomes for children, reducing their likelihood of incarceration by 4.9 percentage poin...
