Misspecified Politics and the Recurrence of Populismt

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Levy, Gilat; Razin, Ronny; Young, Alwyn
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210154to
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 928-962
• 关键词: models; PUNITIVENESS

摘要

We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views-which can be interpreted as populist world views-imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of the simpler world view, leading the latter to overestimate the positive impact of a few extreme actions. D72, D83,